Lazy Post Christmas Days with the Girls.....

So, I was wrapped up last week and never wrote an article, and all of a sudden it's Thursday late afternoon and I am about to go watch a movie with my girls.  It is the last week to make picks and I went to put my picks in and decided to go solely on what the "Trends" say - - I'm not going to break each team down, since I'm really looking forward to that kid's movie.....but I am going to give you the picks I made based solely on each "Trend" -- under covers.com -nfl -scores -under each game is a link to "trends" and I already did the legwork-- ATS --

Chicago/Detroit +2.5 (Detroit)
Jets/Buffalo -5.5 (Jets)
Tampa/Atlanta-7.5 (Tampa)
Carolina/New Orleans -5.5 (Carolina)
Houston/Indy +6.5 (Houston) (but I like INDY)
Jax/Tenn-3.5 (Jax)
Cleve/Pitts -5.5 (Cleve)
Balt/Cincy-2.5 (Cincy)
Philly/Giants -7.5 (Philly)
Arizona/SanFran -16.5 (SanFran) (ooof, it kills me to lay that many points)
KC/Denver -15.5 (KC)
GB/Minny +3.5 (GB)

Miami/NE-10.5 (Miami) (I know!  Read the TRENDS)
Oak/SanDiego -4.5 (Oak)
St. Louis/Seattle -10.5 (Seattle)
Dallas/Washington -3.5 (Dallas)
Points Dallas/Wash - 42........

see you in the Playoffs.......<3 Promises <3

Patriots Murder Texans in 42-14 Bout..........and I was there.

Last Saturday afternoon, right before my little girl's birthday party, I got a call from my friend Dave. “Get a babysitter for Monday Night, cuz we are going to Foxboro baby!” Giddy UP. Man-Oh-Man - - what seats, what weather, what an awesome steak dinner at Longhorns right before.....and then the cherry atop of the perfect evening - - a Patriot blowout. Awesomeness cubed. 

 I admit, I went in skeptical at best.....I thought Houston's Defense was better than ours, I also thought that with the injuries on offense, Tom would struggle a bit. Boy-oh-Boy was I wrong. The Texans looked like a bunch of buffoons out there.....Matt Schaub is pigeon-toed and their defense was like a sieve. OUR defense however – Holy Cows! In the first quarter, when Devin McCourty intercepted Schaub, it was the beginning of the end for the Texans...it was like a swan dance, Devin fluidly moved in front of the receiver and with perfect precision, snatched the ball and ran so smoothly it took a minute for everyone in the stands to understand what happened - - but when the replay was happening on the big screens - it was a crush of excitement and high fives all around. Then it just got better and better.....42-14 ...that second touchdown for the Texans was fluff – backup QB Yates was in for Houston and with 7+ minutes left in the fourth, he steadily marched his team down the field to get the TD right before the 2-minute warning. Fluff. I'm not sure how it came across on TV, but the Pats D was ON. They shut down Foster, blanketed Johnson and smothered Schaub. The Offense was also AFIRE and Brady threw accurate bullets...the 63-yard pass and over the shoulder catch to Donte Stallworth was so pretty it deserved a mirror. The entire game was a wonderful collective effort on both sides of the ball and reminiscent of the SB Pats we know and love. Right in time for Christmas.

Next up, San Fran comes knocking in another Prime Time-er, this one on Sunday night with the Patriots favored by 5-points. And guess what folks? That's right, I will be there again....this time I've known for awhile, and a huge tailgating party is part of the itinerary. San Fran is coming off a 27-13 home win over Miami last week, and really have no idea what they are in for.....well, maybe they have a slight clue - Randy Moss comes back to Bean Town as a 49er. Who will be the QB this week? It's very hush hush. Alex Smith technically could have played last week against Miami, but Coach Harbaugh went with Colin Kaepernick instead....and it looks like he might again this week in Foxboro. But, that Harbaugh is tricky – almost as tricky as our Bill......and it's possible he is playing the old bait and switch....or, he is convinced Colin is his best chance at a W.....who knows? Kaepernick did run for a 50-yard touchdown last week and his mobility and success thus far have obviously gotten the attention of his head coach. What we do know is that if the same Pats from Monday Night FB show up for Sunday Night FB, uh oh Kaepernick.

So, week 15 of the NFL always brings a lot of speculation and a million different scenarios for the playoff pictures, including but not limited to, potential Wild Card Spots - - First-round Bye's and Home-Field Advantages. I will attempt to muddle through some without adding too much confusion.....yeah right...GL, see you at the end.

PLAYOFF PICTURE SCENARIOS: WEEK 15

AFC

In the AFC...

HOUSTON TEXANS

Houston can clinch the AFC South division with:

1) HOU win

Houston can clinch a first-round bye with
1) HOU win + NE loss or tie + DEN loss

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore can clinch the AFC North division with:

1) BAL win OR

2) BAL tie + PIT loss or tie + CIN loss or tie OR

3) PIT loss + CIN loss

Baltimore can clinch a playoff berth with:

1) BAL tie OR

2) CIN loss or tie OR

3) PIT loss or tie

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Indianapolis can clinch a playoff berth with:

1) IND win OR

2) IND tie + CIN loss or tie OR

3) IND tie + PIT loss or tie OR

4) IND tie + BAL win OR

5) NYJ loss or tie + CIN loss OR
6) NYJ loss or tie + BAL win + CIN tie + PIT tie

NFC

In the NFC...

Over in the NFC, it's just as interesting, but most of it coming from "TIE +"...

ATLANTA FALCONS

Atlanta can clinch a first-round bye with:

1) ATL win + GB loss or tie OR

2) ATL win + SF loss OR

3) ATL tie + GB loss

Atlanta can clinch home-field advantage with:

1) ATL win + GB loss or tie + SF loss

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

San Francisco can clinch the NFC West division with:

1) SF win + SEA loss

San Francisco can clinch a playoff berth with:

1) SF win OR

2) SF tie + DAL loss or tie + WAS loss or tie + MIN loss or tie OR

3) SF tie + DAL loss or tie + WAS loss or tie + GB loss OR

4) SF tie + DAL loss or tie + WAS loss or tie + CHI loss OR

5) SF tie + DAL loss or tie + MIN loss or tie + CHI loss OR

6) SF tie + NYG los + CHI loss + MIN loss OR

7) MIN loss + DAL loss + WAS loss + SEA loss or tie

GREEN BAY

Green Bay can clinch the NFC North division with:

1) GB win

Green Bay can clinch a playoff berth with:

1) GB tie + DAL loss + WAS loss + STL-MIN tie OR

2) GB tie + DAL loss + WAS loss + MIN loss + SF win or tie OR
3) GB tie + DAL loss + WAS loss + MIN loss + SEA does not tie

Will Farrell is also a Packer Fan.......

So, if you can understand all that and keep it straight and know who is where when and at what time then you're a better FB guru than me. I am going to wait until the end of next week to read up on where everyone stands and then report it...and technically the list should be shorter, but it never ends up that way. The trends state that road dogs historically do well this week and since history has taught me that Week 15 is nuts and never goes the way you think....unlike all the other weeks when it's SO easy to pick....every little trend helps. Sometimes, teams that need the “must win” and teams that are “out” have a Freaky Friday experience and at the end of the weekend it's like “???”. Sometimes, the “spoiler” teams do just that. I guess what I'm saying is ….never count anyone out....both the desperate and the indifferent are equally dangerous.

My nephew Ajay told me last night that he's been reading me lately. Whatup Neph? Good Job....keep reading, you never know when I'm going to write something to you and you need to be in the know.

May everyone avoid the malls like the plague and have a nice weekend! Watch for me on the screen – I'll be the one in blue with a hat on.

Famous Fans Of Eachother....

Picks: Buffalo +5.5; Detroit -6; Cleveland +1; Patriots -5; TB +3.5; (ridiculously enough I like Philly +3.5 tonight)

A BIG AFC VOGUE ROAR......Vogue, Vogue, Vogue

Wow what a whacky week of football...must be something about the number 13.

The Patriots did a nice job securing AFC East Crown, in their 23-16 win in Miami last week....extra special to be four games ahead of the rest of the division. Nicely done, and kudos. Miami covering the spread in the final seconds was just a cherry. Next week, while the dolphins will fly to San Fran as 10-point road dogs, the Pats will host the Texans as 3.5-point home favorites.

I am a broken record. What's with the hook? This game is huge to both teams. For the Pats a “W” here means a first-round Bye Week, and possibly Home-Field advantage throughout the playoffs, as well as moving within one game of the Texans. For the Texans, a “W” would mean securing No. 1 seed and completing the circle of victories over all of the other divisional leaders in the conference. Whew. Stakes are soaring. Monday Night.....Bright Lights, Movie Stars. Some stats declare that the Patriots are 10-1 in their last 11 Monday night contests, with the wins coming by an average of more than 20 points. Then I ask you, why does this spread seem so skewered to me? Man, it's every single week. Let's use our heads for a minute;

The Texans are no joke this year, their offense is stellar – as is the Patriots, of course, but which Defense will be more effective against the opposite force? Last time these two teams met up in Foxboro, Welker tore his left ACL and MCL in a 34-27 Patriot loss. Oof. This week, the Pats will be short on the offensive side with TE, Gronkowski out recovering from forearm surgery until late December, and Julien Edelman last week lost for the season with a broken foot. The Pats re-signed Donte' Stallworth on Tuesday to help fill the void. Just a for an instance, if the Pats did happen to lose, in reality, they will probably (hopefully) be matched up with the Texans again for the AFC Champ game....and you know the stats on when the Pats play a team for the second time in one season...just think about it. It wouldn't be the worst thing to happen........I'm just saying. Alas, I don't know about that hook, the trends tell me diddly...some favor the Pats and some favor the Texans...it should be a great, edge of your seat Monday Night Football Game whose results will factor into that over-sized machine of NFL stats and spit out a number of different perks for the winner.

Last week, San Fran went to St. Louis as 9-point favorites to re-enact the tie game they shared in week 11....except, this time St. Louis won in overtime 16-13. The 49ers can actually kick the kicker for the loss.....49ers K, David Akers, missed a field goal in OT and gave the Rams the ball on their own 41-yard line.....couple of moves later and Goodnight San Francisco.

Next up for St. Louis is a trip to Buffalo as 3-point road dogs. I think the Bills cover, no stats, just gut.

San Fran will host Miami as 10-point home favorites and although I think the 49ers will win, but I think the spread is too high. All of Miami's losses this season, despite where, have been closer than 10-points and the Dolphins seem to travel well. Although, this will be a pit-stop at home for the 49ers as their next two games are on the road, first here, to Foxboro and then to Seattle – both places difficult to play on the road and the back and forth across the country has got to amount to something. Huh. Well, this game is a flip for me....10-points is a lot.

Speaking of Seattle....wow. It's difficult not to be impressed by rookie QB Russell Wilson and his level head under pressure against the Bears in last week's 23-17 overtime win. The Bears also lost Brian Urlacher for three weeks with a hamstring strain. Owie. Next up for the Bears is a trip to Minny as 2.5-point road favorites. Well, that's kind of a weak spread, considering that this is a repeat road trip for Chicago who conquered the Vikings 28-12 two weeks ago. There is the question of familiarity, but I truly think that we, Patriot Nation, just assume other teams utilize the outrageous advantages of deja vu as well as our own.....and that's just not true. Chicago also already knows how to beat Minny in the dome. The Seahawks will host Arizona as 10-point home favorites in this week's Battle of the Birds. Eek. A lot of chalk. But....it's not unusual for Seattle to win by more than ten at home and the Cardinals have been imploding since their “hot” start. I say the ocean birds eat the pretty red ones.

Last week, the Jets back-doored the Cardinals...in a 7-6 win. The boys in Green finally scored a touchdown in the beginning of the fourth and held the Cardinals to two field goals. Boring. Next.

The Jets go to Jacksonville as 2.5-point road favorites. Oh Brother. Talk about a party of inconsistency. Flip it.

My final game from last week to discuss is that Ind-Detroit nail biter. QB Andrew Luck, another rookie with a rock solid confidence and laser arm, led his team to a victory when all odds were against them. The Colts were losing 33-21 with 2:39 left in the game when Luck tossed a 42-yard touchdown to LaVon Brazill to bring them within 5-points. Then, this young magician orchestrated an 11-play, 75-yard drive with a little over a minute left......on fourth down with four seconds left on the clock, Luck connected with Avery for the winning score. Talk about on the edge of your seat! Very Peyton-like for such a young lad.

Next up, Indy hosts Tennesee as 5-point home favorites and Detroit goes to GB as 7-point road dogs. I think Indy covers the spread and Detroit does too, but loses to my beloved Pack.

Finally, tonight, Denver goes to Oakland as 10.5-point road favorites. Denver is fighting for all kinds of props; like first-round Bye. Oakland has been on a horrific losing streak, however, with the exception of their 38-07 loss to NO in week 11; the Raiders have not lost by more than 7-points at home all season. I think the Raiders cover the spread.

Ok folks, I'm outie. Hope you all have a great weekend!

Also, I'd like to shout out a very special Happy Birthday to my gorgeous, brilliant and totally wonderful Eleanor who will be 5-years old tomorrow. Gosh the time flies. I finally get why my dad wanted to “put bricks” on my head. :)

Picks without bricks: Bills -3; Miami +10; Seahawks -10; Raiders +10.5; Indy -5 and Detroit +7. 

The Week of the DIVISIONAL BATTLES......

I hope everyone had a wonderful, loving, full of good food Thanksgiving Holiday and are all getting back into the rhythm of things.

Week 13 brings us numerous Divisional Match-Ups-- seven to be exact. Most of the time, when divisional teams play each other – even the most hideous somehow step up. It's more competitive, more intense, more personal, and most importantly.....more Familiar. Let's break em' down.

The first big D Fight happens tonight (Thursday) when Atlanta hosts New Orleans as 3.5-point home favorites. Surprisingly, the public is all over New Orleans. Let's think about this a minute people. Atlanta has been on FIRE thus far this season – Matty Ice nothing, more like Matty Hotcha....The Falcon's only loss so far this season was in New Orleans 27-31 and it came down to the final two minutes with Atlanta on NO's 2-yard line, going for it on fourth down and getting stuffed. New Orleans got lucky. Last week, the Falcons barely squeaked out a win at TB 24-23; so, my guess is they don't fiddle around....they come home, they go to work and they take the Saints apart.....limb by limb.

Our own boys will be in Miami as 9-point road favorites. Man, I feel like a broken record. I know that the Pats came back like a big ball of fire, first while hosting Indy in week 11 and winning 59-24, and then last week in New York, they trampled the poor men in green 49-19....and that's great. But, something is nibbling at me.....9-points? Usually, once I get comfortable with the high scoring Patriots, they go back to fight it out games. I'm going against the tide here and taking the points. I think the Pats win, maybe by a touchdown but not more. Let's talk about Miami – although their record is 5-6, four of those six losses were by three points. I'm taking the points...don't be haters.

Minny at Green Bay (-9.5). Ooof, that's a lot of chalk. These teams have serious history and do not like each other very much. Plus, my beloved Packers have taken a hit in the Defense department.....(S) Woodson and (LB) Matthews; are only two of numerous on the injured list, but in my opinion, they are the most crucial players out with injuries. The pressure is on the kid, because a loss here can spiral GB's season right down the crapper. Minny has been playing a spotty season at best. They have some valiant wins, but a lot of sloppy losses too. The Vikings also have their own defensive trouble with their maniac Jared Allen out with a shoulder injury. I'm taking the points on this one. I have faith in the kid....plus the trends read pretty and look to fall my way.

Minnesota	Under is 6-0 in Vikings last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Over is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games in December.
Green Bay	Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games following a ATS loss. Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
Head to Head	Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Green Bay. Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings. Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Green Bay.

Next up to discuss is San Fran traveling to St. Louie as 7-point road favorites. Really? Are people looking at the same information as me? Am I crazy? The last game these two played, was in San Francisco and ended 24-24; the first tie since 2008. What? Now, two weeks later, in their own home, the Rams warrant a 7-point lead? Well, I'm picking St. Louie. They are 3-3 at home so I guess I have a 50/50 shot at getting this right. Follow if you dare.

Houston (-6) at Tennessee is next on the chopping block. I would think Houston would deserve more points as a road favorite due to their record, but I must have missed something. Hmmm. 79% of the public are picking Houston; as would be my first instinct too - - after doing a little digging.....I found absolutely nothing. Houston has had one loss this season, to GB in mid-October, and haven't given any indication they plan on slowing down. Tennessee has been sporadic at best and downright rotten at times.....this seems too easy.....it feels like a trap but I don't know how. I'm going to play it safe and go with the public on this one...they DO win sometimes.

Finally, we have the divisional square of Philly at Dallas (-10.5) and Giants at Washington (+1). Let's take Philly-Dallas first. 10.5-points? What the heck happened to Philly? Not that I'm too surprised, anyone who is cruel and vicious to dogs ultimately will fail in the end.....but 10.5-points to Dallas? What have they done that's so spectacular? Granted, since their Bye week, Philly has yet to win a game, or even lose a close one...and on 11/11, Dallas did beat them up pretty good 38-23 – but, the Boys themselves were coming off a two game losing streak. Fom what I can gather from the screen, Philly started to implode before Vick went out with a concussion last time these two teams met in week 10....three weeks ago, when Philly was only on a five game losing streak. Add two more. Ouch. Philly is a mess. What choice do I have but to go with the Boys? Why do I feel that somehow, from somewhere, the Eagles will pull something off? All they have to do is rock Tony Romo a little and he gets all flustered and chokes. Guffaw. Everyone knows that. I'm torn and twisted about this one and over-thinking it. Those Cowboys manage to screw up a free lunch, and the Eagles are a bunch of stooges with a concussed Psycho at the realm. Flip it Folks.

Finally, let's tackle the Giants and the Redskins. Close spread. Washington getting one point at home. Hmmmm. Interesting. Let's break it down. Washington was on a three game losing streak, until they had their Bye, regrouped, then came out and won two consecutive....Philly (31-6) and Dallas (38-31) – all in D family.....how cozy. The Skins have already lost to the Giants in week 7 - - in a close 27-23, down to the wire fight. Eli got the ball with a little more than a minute on the clock and ended up tossing a 77-yard touchdown to Victor Cruz to become the hero of the day. That must have stung sharp for the Skins and if they lose this weekend, they will have been division-ally swept by the Giants, hence the 1-point.....tricky Vegas.....they don't have a clue. I'm going with Washington +1 at home.....roll the dice baby.

Okay folks, that's all I have for you. I wish you all a warm, cozy weekend, with lots of pigskin and maybe a big Sunday dinner....time for lunch ha ha!

Picks: Atlanta -3.5; St. Louie +7; Wash +1; GB-9.5 (oof); Houston -6 …...I'm usually a dog girl – so 3 favorites makes me leery.....but that's what I got.      

Another Close W by the Pats...... Divisional No Doubt.....

Maybe the Patriots think it's more exciting to keep the game close and keep Patriot Nation at the edge of their seats and screaming at the TV, but I think a tiny problem with “closing the deal” is more apt to be the culprit....sometimes it swings the Pats way and sometimes it doesn't....last week, the pendulum swung our way in the 37-31 W against the Bills. Close! Close! Close! I have a book with that title that I think I'll pop in the overnight to Bill....because every little bit helps.

Thursday Night, Buffalo will host Miami as 1-point home favorites. Last weekend, as we were just discussing, Buffalo came close to finally beating NE in Foxboro, but thankfully, with 23 seconds left, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an interception in the end zone thwarting their victory plan.(PHEW) On the other side, Miami got flounced by Tennessee 37-3......ooof, that had to hurt like a punch in the gut. Naturally, based on last weeks performances, most of the talking heads and the public are behind Buffalo all the way - - but..... I think Miami bounces back, and beats Buffalo because, besides the trends pointing that way, history repeats itself and Miami seems to have the Bill's number....ring ring.

TRENDS:
* Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East.
* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. AFC East.

This week, the Patriots host Indianapolis as 9.5-point home favorites. Man. 63% of the public money is on Indy....which would usually automatically make my mind up for me to go the other way.....however, 10-points? These aren't the same Colts of yesteryear with Peyton behind the ball, however, they currently have the same 6-3 record as our boys.....granted, some of the teams they beat are floppy....but they also have a QB named Luck. Darn it. I am hoping the Patriots get there crap together and put up an astronomical amount of points and put the game away early.....won't that be nice? If you build it they will come. If you believe, it will happen.

Coming up Sunday, Baltimore travels to the limping and broken Pittsburgh as 3.5-point road favorites. Well, I can see why. Big Ben is side-lined with a shoulder injury as well as a very “rare” rib injury...one wrong move and his rib can pierce his aorta and goodnight Ben....forever. So, Bryan Leftwich will step in as QB and he has a bullet arm, but it takes him forever to wind up and throw, also, he can't move around well. In order for the Steelers to be competitive in this very important divisional match-up, their Offensive Line will have to be stellar....those Raven defensive guys are wily and powerful. The public is 75% on Baltimore, and only a fool would choose the Steelers in this situation, all vulnerable with their underbelly exposed......but, I think the team rallies and either beats the Ravens or lose by 3-points. Call me a fool.

Week 11 is shaping up to be the time of the big spreads. Houston hosts Jacksonville as 15-point home favorites. Wow. The sad part is that I will most likely lay the points.....the Jaguars have fooled me one too many times.....and only 57% of the public is on Houston which helps me jump off that point cliff.

Denver hosts San Diego as 8.5-point home favorites with the public split 50/50. Dallas hosts Cleveland as 9.5-point home favorites and another 51/49 public split......what, I ask you, has Dallas done to warrant a 10-point lead on Anybody? Atlanta hosts Arizona as 9.5-point home favorites and the public is 61% on the Falcons – who have proven to be a team to be reckoned with, and Arizona seems to have played their best ball at the beginning of the season, winning their first four only to have jumped on the losing train and gone down hill at neck-breaking speed.

Finally, Monday night will bring a game of epic proportions....pending which QBs play. San Fran hosts Chicago and there is yet to be a spread.

On the Bear side, Cutler is out due to a concussion and won't play, in his place will be either Jason Campbell or Josh McCown....most likely Campbell. Yikes. That stinks. The Bears have been on a tear, and this glitch may slow them down considerably.

On the 49er side, QB Alex Smith, was also diagnosed with a concussion, however has since passed all tests and has been cleared to play Monday night...but, he does also have a finger injury so, if by chance he comes out, rookie QB, Colin Kaepernick will take over.

Well folks, the rest of the day is calling to me and I must answer. I hope you all have toasty warm toes while you watch football, enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for next week's Thanksgiving issue.

Picks: Carolina+1; Detroit +3.5; Miami +1; Pittsburgh +3.5

Jolly Good Show in London.......Pip Pip.

Bloody "L", what a way to shake things up Patriots. Holy Touchdowns.

Following the only points the Rams scored last Sunday, Tom Brady got the ball and said “Heck No”, and then proceeded to lead the offense to four straight TD's in the first half and immediately threw another to start the 3^rd. Very Impressive 45-3 W.

Last week, the Patriot Offense broke a record with 350+ yards of Offense in 17 consecutive games. Ironically, the record was previously held by Kurt Warner and the Rams aka “The Greatest Show on Turf” and set during the 1999-2000 season. Well, at least the Rams had that, very shortly afterward, NE came along - Superbowl contenders ....the underdogs, without a shot - only to Stun the World with a powerful Super Bowl W ....and very soon following, the Rams were no more.   

By the way, did anyone catch the camera blooper when the referee went to explain a flag and stood with his back to the cameras?  He realized his mistake, turned around and explained the flag - and the talking heads said that everything was backward in London....the cameras? Huh? Why? What's the point?....... It just seems so, I don't know.... backwards.

This week, the Patriots are on a much deserved Bye Week along with the Jets, Rams and San Fran. Hopefully, some superstitions prompted the Pats to pack a little English soil or something to take home so that during their next game, they can channel the chaps they were in the Queen's country. 

Tonight, KC goes to San Diego as 9-point road dogs. Man. Both teams have been on brutal losing streaks. Last week, San Diego lost in Cleveland 6-7, and the Chiefs lost at home to Oakland 26-16. Ouchie...big fat weeping Ouch. Now, they face each other and hopefully have taken a big scoop out of the motivational jar...and passed it around....a competitive game is always more entertaining.  So far, everything I've read points toward San Diego winning this game.  They already beat the Chiefs 37-20 in week 4. But, for some reason, I'm liking KC and the points. Forcing turn-overs is a Chief specialty and in my vision, Matt Cassel uses all the negative comments about him and channels them into TD's with a little help from his D---he also works on holding onto the ball and reduces the amount of his turn-overs by pure conscientiousness, therefore re-building his confidence.....anything to stomp Phillip Rivers - -and Cassel is all I have to work with this week.

Last weekend, Hurricane Sandy came to visit and did a number on the East Coast, more specifically, New York City. Our hearts and prayers go out to all of the people, up and down the coast, struggling with the remnants the storm left behind, and to all the people who have suffered losses, or have been relocated from their homes.

This Sunday, the Giants are scheduled to host Pittsburgh as 3.5-point home favorites in what should be a good old fashioned smash mouth game. I haven't heard any news about any damage to the stadium, so I'll go on the assumption that there is none.  Both QB's, Ben and Eli, came out of the 04' draft and have had somewhat parallel careers, promising to give us a good competitive game with absolutely no clue which way this one will fall.  I do know that unless they face off in the big game, they won't play against each other again for another four years (as a Steeler and a Giant). 

Minny goes to Seahawks as 5-point underdogs and WOW! does that line surprise me. Suddenly, Seattle is getting respect.....and with a pretty good team too.....now the question is:  How do they handle it?  Usually, once the underdog gets flipped to the expected winner, everything changes emotionally for the team....whether they recognize it or not, it happens. Emotion. A very important element in a great football game.

Five home dogs out of fourteen games. That's a lot. I'm going to analyze this angle for the remainder of today's football article.

Home Dogs. Imagine. Not only the coaches and the fans, but VEGAS itself.... labeling your team as weak, or unable to fight the stronger team despite being on your own turf. EMOTION people....I'm telling you, it's a powerful thing...and I have witnessed it assist mediocre teams with big wins over more superior teams.....otherwise known as UPSETS.

Not all of the home dogs are going to win outright – but I'm going to guess at least two, if not three of them do...and it's going to be the most unexpected teams that will pull the upset. Let's try and put logic, trends, weather, emotion, talent and injuries all together on these games and determine who will do what.......

First, we have Chicago traveling to Tennessee as 3.5-point road favorites. So far, the trends tell me zip:

Chicago	Bears are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. Over is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games in November.
Tennessee	Under is 6-0 in Titans last 6 games in November. Under is 4-0-1 in Titans last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Under is 4-0-1 in Titans last 5 games as a home favorite.
Head to Head	No recent Head to Head trends

There is a chance of drizzle, and the temp will be approx. 57 degrees, which is nice football weather – with or without a little rain. Tennessee has a slew of recently injured defensive players, plus a banged up QB in Locker, leaving them to continue with Matt Hasselback....who can be touch and go. The same could be said about Jay Cutler....just not lately....the Bears are riding a 5 game winning streak – and winning big – their only loss thus far to GB in week 2..plus they only have a few players on the injured list, and have been playing well both on the road and at home.  I don't think the Titans can overpower this hot team.....the Bears have been rolling, and although it will come to a halt eventually, my guess is:  not this weekend.  69% of public money on a team is sometimes a tip-off to an upset, but I have to ride the hot team on this one.

Next up, is Detroit at Jax as 4-point road favorites. It's expected to be sunny and hot in FLA on Sunday, and trends indicate that the favored team is 4-0 ATS....but also clearly states that the Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Conflicting. There is nothing specifically about Jacksonville to compare to.

Detroit	Over is 5-0 in Lions last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Over is 4-0 in Lions last 4 games in Week 9. Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Jacksonville	Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games as a home favorite. Over is 3-0-1 in Jaguars last 4 games in Week 9. Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Head to Head	No recent Head to Head trends

Detroit suffered a handful of injuries as well, but none as damaging as WR Nate Burleson, who broke his leg. What a bummer.  On the other side of the field,  Jacksonville's RB Maurice Jones-Drew is out with a foot injury... a huge loss to the Jaguars who are 0-3 at home thus far this season.  I want to take Detroit in this game – but, Detroit is 0-3 against the Jaguars.....and despite the Jaguar's atrocious play this season coupled with their limping line-up, they did play tough in GB last weekend. All the ingredients of a possible upset are evident....including the 73% public money. Here I go, jumping off a cliff.

Home dog number three is Indy hosting Miami as 1-point road favorites. In this match-up, both teams are 4-3 and 1-point is not committing to either team, maybe a very slight lean toward Miami....a missed extra point. Miami has been playing good ball for the past few weeks; out of their past six games, they won four of them, losing the other two in overtime. And Indy shocked everyone with their wins in weeks 2 and 4 over Minny and GB, respectively. QB Andrew Luck seems to be solid and settling into his new role as head horse....however, every single trend points to Miami winning this game......and being the trend girl that I am, I've gotta go with my trends....read em' and weep:

Miami	Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Indianapolis	Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November. Under is 5-0 in Colts last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Under is 4-0 in Colts last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Head to Head	Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Indianapolis. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Miami it is. (54% of public money – much better percentage).

Baltimore will go to their divisional rival's house in Cleveland as 3.5-point road favorites. I'm usually pretty Dennis Leary of divisional road favorites as the teams tend to know each other quite well. The trends indicate a slight Brown advantage:

Baltimore	Over is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC. Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Cleveland	Under is 5-0-1 in Browns last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Over is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games in Week 9. Browns are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC North.
Head to Head	Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cleveland. Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Last weekend, the Texans derailed Baltimore's four game winning streak with a massive 43-13 lashing in Houston and Cleveland held onto a 1-point lead in their 7-6 home victory to San Diego.  One team coming off a win and the other off a loss...usually slight motivational lean toward the team coming off the loss.

There is a 35% chance of rain or snow - - which both teams are accustomed to. Historically, both in Cleveland and in Baltimore; the Ravens have won 9 of their 10 games since 2007. BUT, the Browns are getting a couple of Defensive players back and the Ravens have lost a couple of key Defensive players. The Browns are slowly improving, their QB is green, but learning, and their D is compensating. I am leaning toward the home team in this one....as crazy and unorthodox as that may seem....the point that pushed me completely onto the Brown side is the 73% of public money on Baltimore - - too many people thinking it's in the bag.

Our final team to discuss will be Denver at Cincy as 3.5-point road favorites. The weather shouldn't be a factor, in fact, it's forecast as clear and sunny. I'm wondering if Cincy will be more motivated coming off a Bye week and if Denver will be slightly deflated with a short week.  Last weekend, the Broncos beat NO 34-14 in Sunday Night's Prime Time.  During their past six games, the Bengals had a three week winning streak immediately followed by a three game losing streak, with a Bye last weekend to re-group. The trends do nothing but confuse the issue.....prepare to be conflicted:

Denver	Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cincinnati	Bengals are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Over is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 5-0 in Bengals last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Head to Head	Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

With 69% of public money on Denver, I'm still conflicted....sometimes the public wins, otherwise people would stop betting. I like Denver to win, but something is nibbling at me saying “don't discount those Bengals”.... I am undecided on this one. Sorry. Flip a coin.

Well, that's it folks. Enjoy your pigskin this weekend, or your Bye week; whichever floats your boat....and may all your fantasy teams prevail!

Picks: Jax +4; Chicago -3.5; Minny +5; Miami -3.5; Cleveland +3.5; 

Too close for comfort......

Man-O-Man was that an intense football game last Sunday in Foxboro or WHAT? Everyone was pretty chill until there was about five minutes left in the game and the Jets scored 13-points in a matter of four minutes and some change to take the lead 26-23. Balk. In years past, with 1:42 left in regulation, no problem, Brady has always been money in those situations. But there is a some rust on the fourth quarter antics for the Pats, and a couple of times this year (week 2, week 3 and week 6; specifically), they lost games in the fourth, rocking my confidence in their ability to close. Week 7 was GOOD 29-26 Patriot victory....WHEW. Those darn Jets.....Arrrgghhhh......aren't they though?

This Sunday at 1:00 PM will find our Patriots in St. Louie as 7-point road favorites. I don't want Bob to yell at me again about not having faith and stuff, BUT..... hear me out Bob, I'm just using my own little FB logic..... head not heart..... The Rams have only lost one game at home this season and that was last week's 20-30 loss to a rebounding Packers Team. The only other team to beat the Rams by more than four-points this season was Chicago and that was in the windy city in Week 3. The numbers don't lie. The Rams are 5-2 ATS - - so again this week, I'm going to guess that the Pats will win but not cover the spread....and hope they prove me wrong.

This week, the Jets host Miami as 1-point home favorites. Wow....the book has as much confidence in the men in green as I do.....unfortunately, I think the Jets win this one. My fingers are starting to melt just from typing those words......aaaaahhhh.

Tonight, for Thursday Night Football, Tampa Bay will travel to Minnesota as 5.5-point road dogs and I am Torn. Whereas the Vikings are undefeated at home thus far this year, and Tampa is 0-2 on the road, I am thinking the complete opposite of what I said above. Tampa Bay suffered a tough 35-28 loss last week at home to the Saints, and every yard was hard fought and valiantly played. Minny, also at home, beat Arizona 21-14......but, between the three Trends listed below and the fact that TB beat Minny last year 24-20, I'm thinking of taking the points. One of those gut calls....tonight will help me gauge my luck/skill for Sunday's games....so, if Minny obliterates TB tonight, disregard all picks below.

* Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Buccaneers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.
* Vikings are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games.

There aren't really a whole heck of a lot of great eye catching match-ups this week...the few that piqued my interest are: Washington @ Pittsburgh; Giants @ Dallas and Sunday night NO @ Denver.
First, Washington at Pittsburgh as 4.5-point road dogs. The Redskins are 2-2 on the road and Pittsburgh is 2-0 at home this year. Considering the Steelers only had two home games so far this year, I hate to admit that they will probably win. Although Washington has been a pretty feisty team, and have proven to play tough the full 60 minutes – 64% of the public money is on the Redskins and that makes me lean toward the bee men.

The Giants go to Dallas as 1-point favorites which shows that Vegas doesn't know who's going to prevail, although 72% of the public is on NY......tricky bookie, take the Boys.

Sunday night, New Orleans will travel to a “fresh off the Bye” Denver as 6-point road dogs. Huh. Well, the Saints won a game, had a Bye and won a game.....and the Broncos lost a game, won a game and had a Bye...which tells me absolutely nothing. I like Denver to win, but don't know about that 6-points....similar to the Pats, I think that's a lot of chalk for an inconsistent team. The only thing is, when Denver wins, they win by a good chunk of points.....but on the other hand, the Saints seem to be taking all criticisms about their losses and churning them into full blown motivational butter. Tough call.

Monday night, San Fran goes to Arizona as 6.5-point road favorites. I like Arizona and the points. The 49ers only have two losses under their belt, but they were significant losses; 13-24 in Minny week 3 and 26-3 hosting the Giants two weeks ago. The Cardinals started the season hot-to-trot but then fizzled and died the past three consecutive weeks, losing by 14, 3 and 7-points respectively....with only the middle loss at home against the Bills. IDK, I guess I'm playing it safe taking the points....I'm really wishy washy today so it makes it difficult to commit.

I hope Sunday brings us sunshine and mega-points. Enjoy your weekend and get stop eating all the Halloween candy!


Picks: TB +6.5; Denver -6; Arizona +6.5; Dallas +1; Pitts -4.5 (I don't love this pick)

Ooof, Patriot Nation took one on the chin.....

Seattle came back and KO'd the Pats with 14-unanswered points in the fourth quarter leading to a surprising 24-23 Seahawk victory. Ouch. That smarts. In the beginning, it was pretty. It looked like the Patriots were dominating the game, but then a mistake or two enabled the Seahawks to swoop in and take the game with a dramatic finish.

God help the Jets this week. The Pats host the Jets as 10.5-point home favorites. And any given Sunday, based on what transpired last week, I would jump all over the NE Bandwagon. Not only do I despise the Men in Green....especially their leader....but usually, the Pats at home coupled with them coming off a tough loss, all leads to Money. But, I can't deny that the Jets are somehow putting up points. For a team with minimal targets, they are shoving RB Shonn Greene (4 TD's) down their opponents' throats and being successful with the run. The only names I recognize on their Offense Roster are: Shonn Greene, Santonio Holmes, Mark Sanches and Tim Tebo.....huh....it baffles me as to how they are winning games....any games...or even scoring points...any points. The Jets are 3-3, just like the Pats, and they are fighting for the same seat at the top of the division. Last week, the Jets beat Indianapolis 35-9 at home after suffering back to back home losses in weeks 4 and 5 against San Fran (-34)and Houston (-7) respectively. I think that the Patriots will have trouble stopping the run and 10.5-points is a lot of chalk. Honest Engine. The divisional teams, especially ours, usually play each other a lot tighter than 10.5-points. My guess is that the Pats win but don't cover.

But, hey, I've been wrong before....just not last week...... Wicki Wicki Wicki. Five out of Six isn't bad....ha ha. Someone asked me last week what my average W/L ratio was and I was perplexed. It never occurred to me to go back to check, so I sounded like a dope with no answer. Uh? Duh? One thing I do know is that I called that Tennessee win last Thursday night AND that Seattle debacle.
Last week: (Picks: Detroit +4; Tennessee +5.5; SanFran -4.5; Green Bay +3.5; (They Who Must Not Be Named +3.5) with the only loser being SanFran -4.5.....

Speaking of those goons, this Thursday night showdown is that pesky (4-2) Seahawk team going to (4-2) San Fran as 7.5-point road dogs but Seattle doesn't have too far to travel. This will be the 49ers first divisional game this season, and it is following a horror show in the Bay area last week against the Giants. The 49ers fizzled and got walked on in their 26-3 embarrassing loss. This week, I think the Seahawks will be a lot too cocky following their wins over NE, GB & Dallas thus far this season. I also think Seattle will lose but cover the spread. I read an article that quoted a Seahawk stating something about them showing the TV guys how wrong they are and yaddy yaddy. A young hyped-up team that views themselves as underdogs again this week. In both losses for the Hawks this season, they were favored. 9/9 by 1-point against Arizona to kick off the season, and 9/30 against St.Louis, by 2-points.....their other 4 games, all winners, had them as the underdogs. Hmmm Hmmm Hmmmmm....perhaps I've discovered the simple secret of their motivation? A useful and common motivational tool – “Nobody believes in You!”
San Fran is 2^nd in Pass defense and 9^th in Rush defense, whereas Seattle is 13^th in Pass defense and 2^nd in Rush defense. So, I'm guessing that the Seahawks will pound RB Marshawn Lynch and the 49ers will let QB, Alex Smith throw it up.....but if I'm guessing that...then the opposing coaches probably thought of it too and will switch it up....nevertheless, it should be a good matchup.

In other news, this Sunday, the (5-1) Baltimore heads to (5-1) Houston as 6.5-point underdogs in what promises to be a good game. I'm torn. I lean toward Houston only because they are home, although, Baltimore's only loss was by 1-point in Philly early in the season and Houston's only loss was at home, by 18-points not only to an angry GB team, but only last week! I believe Houston will redeem, so I will stick with my original assessment. :)

Also on Sunday, (4-2) Arizona travels to (4-2) Minny as 6-point road dogs. The Cardinals are coming off a two-game losing streak, one on the road in St. Louis (3-17) and last week at home to the Bills (16-19). The Vikings are also coming off of a loss - a 38-26 smack down in Washington. But, the Vikings are 3-0 playing at home in the dome this season. Can the Cardinals bounce back? Like the Seahawks, the Cardinals seem to play more competitively when in the dog position. This promises to be a good game. Who would have thunk it a season ago?

Washington will travel to the Meadowlands to take on the Giants as 5.5-point road dogs. I always think that these two teams play each other solid, and usually competitively. I am going to jump off a cliff here and go with the points.

The Packers go to St. Louie as 5-point road favorites. St. Louis is 3-0 at home this year, all three of their wins at home and as underdogs, against Washington, Seattle and Arizona, respectively. The Pack lost two of their three road games (although the controversial 14-12 loss in Seattle should not count). I like the Packers to continue on the path of winning, so I pick them.

Sunday night will bring us to Cincy where the Bengals host the Steelers as 1-point home dogs in a divisional match-up. Historically, Pittsburgh wins ATS (against-the-spread), but the Steelers are also on that crazy 6 road game losing streak. This year, I think Cincy has a better team and Pitts is banged up, so I'm going with the tigers. Roar.

Tigers and Lions and Bears, oh my. Monday night will bring us Detroit at Chicago as 6.5-point road dogs. The Bears are coming off a Bye Week and have been riding a three game winning streak prior to that. It seems like something is clicking for the Bears this season and the Lions are starting and sputtering and starting and sputtering. I will take a ride on the W streak. Even though Jay Cutler is always one snap away from a nervous breakdown.....the Bears have only lost one game thus far this season and that was 10-23 at GB. The other four games they've played (2 at home and 2 on the road) have all resulted in double digit wins. Can I get another Roar? Oh yeah.

Well, I'm done. It's a beautiful day out there, I hope you all got a chance to soak in some Vitamin D. Enjoy your pigskin! Go Pats!

Picks: Bears -6.5; Washington +5.5; Seahawks +7.5; GB-5; Cincy +1