Another Close W by the Pats...... Divisional No Doubt.....

Maybe the Patriots think it's more exciting to keep the game close and keep Patriot Nation at the edge of their seats and screaming at the TV, but I think a tiny problem with “closing the deal” is more apt to be the culprit....sometimes it swings the Pats way and sometimes it doesn't....last week, the pendulum swung our way in the 37-31 W against the Bills. Close! Close! Close! I have a book with that title that I think I'll pop in the overnight to Bill....because every little bit helps.

Thursday Night, Buffalo will host Miami as 1-point home favorites. Last weekend, as we were just discussing, Buffalo came close to finally beating NE in Foxboro, but thankfully, with 23 seconds left, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an interception in the end zone thwarting their victory plan.(PHEW) On the other side, Miami got flounced by Tennessee 37-3......ooof, that had to hurt like a punch in the gut. Naturally, based on last weeks performances, most of the talking heads and the public are behind Buffalo all the way - - but..... I think Miami bounces back, and beats Buffalo because, besides the trends pointing that way, history repeats itself and Miami seems to have the Bill's number....ring ring.

TRENDS:
* Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East.
* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. AFC East.

This week, the Patriots host Indianapolis as 9.5-point home favorites. Man. 63% of the public money is on Indy....which would usually automatically make my mind up for me to go the other way.....however, 10-points? These aren't the same Colts of yesteryear with Peyton behind the ball, however, they currently have the same 6-3 record as our boys.....granted, some of the teams they beat are floppy....but they also have a QB named Luck. Darn it. I am hoping the Patriots get there crap together and put up an astronomical amount of points and put the game away early.....won't that be nice? If you build it they will come. If you believe, it will happen.

Coming up Sunday, Baltimore travels to the limping and broken Pittsburgh as 3.5-point road favorites. Well, I can see why. Big Ben is side-lined with a shoulder injury as well as a very “rare” rib injury...one wrong move and his rib can pierce his aorta and goodnight Ben....forever. So, Bryan Leftwich will step in as QB and he has a bullet arm, but it takes him forever to wind up and throw, also, he can't move around well. In order for the Steelers to be competitive in this very important divisional match-up, their Offensive Line will have to be stellar....those Raven defensive guys are wily and powerful. The public is 75% on Baltimore, and only a fool would choose the Steelers in this situation, all vulnerable with their underbelly exposed......but, I think the team rallies and either beats the Ravens or lose by 3-points. Call me a fool.

Week 11 is shaping up to be the time of the big spreads. Houston hosts Jacksonville as 15-point home favorites. Wow. The sad part is that I will most likely lay the points.....the Jaguars have fooled me one too many times.....and only 57% of the public is on Houston which helps me jump off that point cliff.

Denver hosts San Diego as 8.5-point home favorites with the public split 50/50. Dallas hosts Cleveland as 9.5-point home favorites and another 51/49 public split......what, I ask you, has Dallas done to warrant a 10-point lead on Anybody? Atlanta hosts Arizona as 9.5-point home favorites and the public is 61% on the Falcons – who have proven to be a team to be reckoned with, and Arizona seems to have played their best ball at the beginning of the season, winning their first four only to have jumped on the losing train and gone down hill at neck-breaking speed.

Finally, Monday night will bring a game of epic proportions....pending which QBs play. San Fran hosts Chicago and there is yet to be a spread.

On the Bear side, Cutler is out due to a concussion and won't play, in his place will be either Jason Campbell or Josh McCown....most likely Campbell. Yikes. That stinks. The Bears have been on a tear, and this glitch may slow them down considerably.

On the 49er side, QB Alex Smith, was also diagnosed with a concussion, however has since passed all tests and has been cleared to play Monday night...but, he does also have a finger injury so, if by chance he comes out, rookie QB, Colin Kaepernick will take over.

Well folks, the rest of the day is calling to me and I must answer. I hope you all have toasty warm toes while you watch football, enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for next week's Thanksgiving issue.

Picks: Carolina+1; Detroit +3.5; Miami +1; Pittsburgh +3.5