Too close for comfort......

Man-O-Man was that an intense football game last Sunday in Foxboro or WHAT? Everyone was pretty chill until there was about five minutes left in the game and the Jets scored 13-points in a matter of four minutes and some change to take the lead 26-23. Balk. In years past, with 1:42 left in regulation, no problem, Brady has always been money in those situations. But there is a some rust on the fourth quarter antics for the Pats, and a couple of times this year (week 2, week 3 and week 6; specifically), they lost games in the fourth, rocking my confidence in their ability to close. Week 7 was GOOD 29-26 Patriot victory....WHEW. Those darn Jets.....Arrrgghhhh......aren't they though?

This Sunday at 1:00 PM will find our Patriots in St. Louie as 7-point road favorites. I don't want Bob to yell at me again about not having faith and stuff, BUT..... hear me out Bob, I'm just using my own little FB logic..... head not heart..... The Rams have only lost one game at home this season and that was last week's 20-30 loss to a rebounding Packers Team. The only other team to beat the Rams by more than four-points this season was Chicago and that was in the windy city in Week 3. The numbers don't lie. The Rams are 5-2 ATS - - so again this week, I'm going to guess that the Pats will win but not cover the spread....and hope they prove me wrong.

This week, the Jets host Miami as 1-point home favorites. Wow....the book has as much confidence in the men in green as I do.....unfortunately, I think the Jets win this one. My fingers are starting to melt just from typing those words......aaaaahhhh.

Tonight, for Thursday Night Football, Tampa Bay will travel to Minnesota as 5.5-point road dogs and I am Torn. Whereas the Vikings are undefeated at home thus far this year, and Tampa is 0-2 on the road, I am thinking the complete opposite of what I said above. Tampa Bay suffered a tough 35-28 loss last week at home to the Saints, and every yard was hard fought and valiantly played. Minny, also at home, beat Arizona 21-14......but, between the three Trends listed below and the fact that TB beat Minny last year 24-20, I'm thinking of taking the points. One of those gut calls....tonight will help me gauge my luck/skill for Sunday's games....so, if Minny obliterates TB tonight, disregard all picks below.

* Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Buccaneers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.
* Vikings are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games.

There aren't really a whole heck of a lot of great eye catching match-ups this week...the few that piqued my interest are: Washington @ Pittsburgh; Giants @ Dallas and Sunday night NO @ Denver.
First, Washington at Pittsburgh as 4.5-point road dogs. The Redskins are 2-2 on the road and Pittsburgh is 2-0 at home this year. Considering the Steelers only had two home games so far this year, I hate to admit that they will probably win. Although Washington has been a pretty feisty team, and have proven to play tough the full 60 minutes – 64% of the public money is on the Redskins and that makes me lean toward the bee men.

The Giants go to Dallas as 1-point favorites which shows that Vegas doesn't know who's going to prevail, although 72% of the public is on NY......tricky bookie, take the Boys.

Sunday night, New Orleans will travel to a “fresh off the Bye” Denver as 6-point road dogs. Huh. Well, the Saints won a game, had a Bye and won a game.....and the Broncos lost a game, won a game and had a Bye...which tells me absolutely nothing. I like Denver to win, but don't know about that 6-points....similar to the Pats, I think that's a lot of chalk for an inconsistent team. The only thing is, when Denver wins, they win by a good chunk of points.....but on the other hand, the Saints seem to be taking all criticisms about their losses and churning them into full blown motivational butter. Tough call.

Monday night, San Fran goes to Arizona as 6.5-point road favorites. I like Arizona and the points. The 49ers only have two losses under their belt, but they were significant losses; 13-24 in Minny week 3 and 26-3 hosting the Giants two weeks ago. The Cardinals started the season hot-to-trot but then fizzled and died the past three consecutive weeks, losing by 14, 3 and 7-points respectively....with only the middle loss at home against the Bills. IDK, I guess I'm playing it safe taking the points....I'm really wishy washy today so it makes it difficult to commit.

I hope Sunday brings us sunshine and mega-points. Enjoy your weekend and get stop eating all the Halloween candy!


Picks: TB +6.5; Denver -6; Arizona +6.5; Dallas +1; Pitts -4.5 (I don't love this pick)

Ooof, Patriot Nation took one on the chin.....

Seattle came back and KO'd the Pats with 14-unanswered points in the fourth quarter leading to a surprising 24-23 Seahawk victory. Ouch. That smarts. In the beginning, it was pretty. It looked like the Patriots were dominating the game, but then a mistake or two enabled the Seahawks to swoop in and take the game with a dramatic finish.

God help the Jets this week. The Pats host the Jets as 10.5-point home favorites. And any given Sunday, based on what transpired last week, I would jump all over the NE Bandwagon. Not only do I despise the Men in Green....especially their leader....but usually, the Pats at home coupled with them coming off a tough loss, all leads to Money. But, I can't deny that the Jets are somehow putting up points. For a team with minimal targets, they are shoving RB Shonn Greene (4 TD's) down their opponents' throats and being successful with the run. The only names I recognize on their Offense Roster are: Shonn Greene, Santonio Holmes, Mark Sanches and Tim Tebo.....huh....it baffles me as to how they are winning games....any games...or even scoring points...any points. The Jets are 3-3, just like the Pats, and they are fighting for the same seat at the top of the division. Last week, the Jets beat Indianapolis 35-9 at home after suffering back to back home losses in weeks 4 and 5 against San Fran (-34)and Houston (-7) respectively. I think that the Patriots will have trouble stopping the run and 10.5-points is a lot of chalk. Honest Engine. The divisional teams, especially ours, usually play each other a lot tighter than 10.5-points. My guess is that the Pats win but don't cover.

But, hey, I've been wrong before....just not last week...... Wicki Wicki Wicki. Five out of Six isn't bad....ha ha. Someone asked me last week what my average W/L ratio was and I was perplexed. It never occurred to me to go back to check, so I sounded like a dope with no answer. Uh? Duh? One thing I do know is that I called that Tennessee win last Thursday night AND that Seattle debacle.
Last week: (Picks: Detroit +4; Tennessee +5.5; SanFran -4.5; Green Bay +3.5; (They Who Must Not Be Named +3.5) with the only loser being SanFran -4.5.....

Speaking of those goons, this Thursday night showdown is that pesky (4-2) Seahawk team going to (4-2) San Fran as 7.5-point road dogs but Seattle doesn't have too far to travel. This will be the 49ers first divisional game this season, and it is following a horror show in the Bay area last week against the Giants. The 49ers fizzled and got walked on in their 26-3 embarrassing loss. This week, I think the Seahawks will be a lot too cocky following their wins over NE, GB & Dallas thus far this season. I also think Seattle will lose but cover the spread. I read an article that quoted a Seahawk stating something about them showing the TV guys how wrong they are and yaddy yaddy. A young hyped-up team that views themselves as underdogs again this week. In both losses for the Hawks this season, they were favored. 9/9 by 1-point against Arizona to kick off the season, and 9/30 against St.Louis, by 2-points.....their other 4 games, all winners, had them as the underdogs. Hmmm Hmmm Hmmmmm....perhaps I've discovered the simple secret of their motivation? A useful and common motivational tool – “Nobody believes in You!”
San Fran is 2^nd in Pass defense and 9^th in Rush defense, whereas Seattle is 13^th in Pass defense and 2^nd in Rush defense. So, I'm guessing that the Seahawks will pound RB Marshawn Lynch and the 49ers will let QB, Alex Smith throw it up.....but if I'm guessing that...then the opposing coaches probably thought of it too and will switch it up....nevertheless, it should be a good matchup.

In other news, this Sunday, the (5-1) Baltimore heads to (5-1) Houston as 6.5-point underdogs in what promises to be a good game. I'm torn. I lean toward Houston only because they are home, although, Baltimore's only loss was by 1-point in Philly early in the season and Houston's only loss was at home, by 18-points not only to an angry GB team, but only last week! I believe Houston will redeem, so I will stick with my original assessment. :)

Also on Sunday, (4-2) Arizona travels to (4-2) Minny as 6-point road dogs. The Cardinals are coming off a two-game losing streak, one on the road in St. Louis (3-17) and last week at home to the Bills (16-19). The Vikings are also coming off of a loss - a 38-26 smack down in Washington. But, the Vikings are 3-0 playing at home in the dome this season. Can the Cardinals bounce back? Like the Seahawks, the Cardinals seem to play more competitively when in the dog position. This promises to be a good game. Who would have thunk it a season ago?

Washington will travel to the Meadowlands to take on the Giants as 5.5-point road dogs. I always think that these two teams play each other solid, and usually competitively. I am going to jump off a cliff here and go with the points.

The Packers go to St. Louie as 5-point road favorites. St. Louis is 3-0 at home this year, all three of their wins at home and as underdogs, against Washington, Seattle and Arizona, respectively. The Pack lost two of their three road games (although the controversial 14-12 loss in Seattle should not count). I like the Packers to continue on the path of winning, so I pick them.

Sunday night will bring us to Cincy where the Bengals host the Steelers as 1-point home dogs in a divisional match-up. Historically, Pittsburgh wins ATS (against-the-spread), but the Steelers are also on that crazy 6 road game losing streak. This year, I think Cincy has a better team and Pitts is banged up, so I'm going with the tigers. Roar.

Tigers and Lions and Bears, oh my. Monday night will bring us Detroit at Chicago as 6.5-point road dogs. The Bears are coming off a Bye Week and have been riding a three game winning streak prior to that. It seems like something is clicking for the Bears this season and the Lions are starting and sputtering and starting and sputtering. I will take a ride on the W streak. Even though Jay Cutler is always one snap away from a nervous breakdown.....the Bears have only lost one game thus far this season and that was 10-23 at GB. The other four games they've played (2 at home and 2 on the road) have all resulted in double digit wins. Can I get another Roar? Oh yeah.

Well, I'm done. It's a beautiful day out there, I hope you all got a chance to soak in some Vitamin D. Enjoy your pigskin! Go Pats!

Picks: Bears -6.5; Washington +5.5; Seahawks +7.5; GB-5; Cincy +1

Prevailing Patriots put Peyton's Pthhhhh Play upon a Platter.....

Whatever that means. I don't know.  I was just trying to make an entire sentence only using “p”s .....and I almost did it....I came close. Ptttthhh. AnywayZ.....Pittsburgh played Philly and Practically Payed the Piper, but Pulled it off Prior to Pppppp....that's all I've got..... the Steelers won 16-14 in a ping-pong Defensive match. This Thursday night has Pittsburgh going to Tennessee as 5.5-point road favorites. Tennessee lost in Minny last week, 30-7....and have allowed a league worst – 181-points scored against, they are broken and crappy and destined..... at first glance, to lose this game. However, on the other hand, Pitts will be without Troy Polamalo and haven't won on the road yet this year. Actually, they've only won one of their past five road games. The trends sing their song of indication and clearly Pittsburgh, from this perspective, should, and most likely will, …....lose. Read em' and weep you yellow towel freakshows......

TRENDS:
* Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.
* Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Titans’ last seven home games.

<3 I Heart Trends <3

Ooof. Those are some tough numbers for the Bee Men. So, I'm going to jump off the Public Cliff here and say Tennessee as home dogs getting 5.5-points. Come to think of it, usually right around this week 6 time; some whacky things start happening... a lot of “for sure”'s are really “not”....we witnessed a touch of it last week when Indianapolis came alive at home, played a great game and beat my beloved Packers 30-27.....or when the Jets somehow scored 17 points with a crappy Offense against Houston and this year's number one D.....also when the 4-0 Arizona Cardinals sputtered and choked in St. Louie with a big 17-3 coughing loss.....not to mention that the Seahawks won on the ROAD -16-12 in Carolina. Wow. It's all a bit Perplexing....and it's about to get a tad worse before it all falls into place a little.

Speaking of Seattle.......this Sunday, New England will travel to the misty Vampire city as 3.5-point road favorites. And as much as I hate to admit this, or remember that I said it earlier in the Season, obviously without looking at a schedule.....but, the Seahawks play stellar at home and their crowd makes it one of the loudest places to play. Now along come our boys, fresh off a beautiful 31-21 win over an arch enemy, Peyton Manning and his Broncos..... traveling across the country to go against Pete Carroll, a guy who probably blames the Patriots organization for being downsized to a college Coach for so very long........and well, looky here, you're in his house now and blah de blah...whatever, the guy belongs in a frat house and his name should be Frank. My point being, Pete Carroll is going to fill that entire room of impressionable young minds with some tear-jerker story with New England as the bad guys and Carroll as the poor victim who was wounded deeply by the Pats and that his team, his organization, the Seattle Seahawks, should make it their Loyal DUTY to destroy as commanded. Whatever kind of dollop he spews from his mouth, I think this may be a closer game than what we, Patriot Fans, have come to expect. Yes Ray, I am reminding my readers that I am first and foremost a Patriot Fan, and am only typing what I believe to be the facts. Don't shoot me, or peg me with tomatoes.

This week, Denver will travel to San Diego as 1.5-point road dogs in a Monday Night Thriller. San Diego is and has always been, in my opinion, a choke team. My Opinion. Last week, Phillip Rivers and the band came up short in New Orleans by 7-points. The Saints FINALLY Won A Game! First Win Without Sean Payton in the Coaching Seat. Jeez. They're like a bunch of babies who have just given up their binkies.....they can either decide that they are going to be okay and move on, or they can sit in the middle of the floor and cry.....this week the Saints are on a Bye Week, so they have a little time to decide. Carolina, Chicago and Jacksonville are sharing that Bye.

This Monday Night, the Giants will fly clear across the Country to SanFran as 4.5-point road dogs. The 49ers are probably still feeling the sting of last year's 20-17 playoff loss to the J'ints, therefore have more of an emotional advantage. Last week, the at home 49ers murdered the Bills in a 45-3, “in the Dining Room with a Candlestick” kind of crime. Ironically enough, the Giants hosted Cleveland and killed them in a 41-27 flossing. I still pick San Fran in this debacle, they have more scar tissue and have home-field advantage.

With that being said, and the football part mostly wrapped up....I wanted to announce that not only do I have this article written and ready ON-TIME for the second week in a row......BUT.......I am officially:
THE MAYOR OF ROSLINDALE...... that's right folks, I'll see you at the Parade on Sunday. I'll be the one in the Mayor of Roslindale's car....waving to you, smiling and driving slowly....no tomatoes please.

Picks: Detroit +4; Tennessee +5.5; SanFran -4.5; Green Bay +3.5; (They Who Must Not Be Named +3.5)

Who's got two thumbs and loves our PATS? This guy....

New England went HOUSE on Buffalo as 3.5-point road favorites with a final score of 52-28....Ooof, Buffalo...wrong place, wrong time dudes – they played a normal game, scoring 28 points. Unlike our very own FB team who came in and Attacked...again, and again, and again... 31-points in the 4^th quarter. It was blatant that as soon as the Bills came close, the Pats just went bananas and made the game one sided. Yae. Keep doing that Patriots!

This week, Manning comes back into town, wearing a different uniform....Denver comes to Foxboro as 6.5-point road dogs. With great points comes higher point-spread favorites. Jeesh, I thought we were on our way to a season of being the dog and FLIP, what a difference a week makes.

If we talk this out reasonably, we may be able to predict the outcome..... Manning is one guy, and yes, he knows our team well,.....but, he can't teach the Denver Broncos how to respond to our team with words.....it's instinct and habit. We are an entire team including Coaches that know Manning,....and we have his number......Hmmmm. Plus the game is in Foxboro, Brady has targets that he can send telepathy messages to during key moments, and we are coming off a major breakout game with mega-points, …..rust is official off.

But on the flip side, Manning has some targets, a lot of rookies that nobody can predict when they may have a “moment”, and RB, Willis McGahee runs the ball awesomely, making Peyton's job easier.

Last week, Denver beat Oakland, in a divisional 37-6 lop-sided road victory. And apparently, it was the first time Denver has beaten the Raiders at home since 2007. Uh Oh, sounds like Peyton may be getting a groove on. Wow, I can't wait! This should be a great, entertaining, come down to the final minute, kind of game.....I just hope the Pats are on the winning end of that final play.

Moving on to other games, tonight, Thursday, the Cardinals are going to the newly victorious St. Louie as 1-point road favorites. Arizona is yet to be beaten this season and are going for 5 straight wins. The Rams are 2-2, but both of their wins were at home. So they are homebodies. That's a football term that I just feminized....and that's a word I just made up..... moving on.

The Cardinals are pretty solid this year, their wins have been by 4, 2, 21, and 3-points respectively. Tough call. St. Louie plays well at home and one of these weeks Arizona is going to crash to a crappy team-- it's just the way it goes -so which team would that be? St. Louis? Or too soon? Hmmm. I'm going to say too soon. Arizona will put up points early and St. Louie will play catch up. I think.

Moving on to some great games last week with photo finishes – Carolina JUST lost to Atlanta 30-28, and I actually felt bad for the Panthers for the first time EVER. They really played a great game and did deserve to win that game.....wow.....what a sucky ending for them. Carolina's QB, Cam Newton played an admirable game, making plays left and right – but then, with time ticking away and a one point lead, Newton fumbled the ball. Oof. FG for Atlanta and done.

The good news for Carolina is that they host Seattle this week as 3-point favorites and the Seahawks stink on the road and Cam Newton probably feels that redemption is his duty. Go Panthers!

The three 4-0 teams as of now are Houston, Arizona and Atlanta. We covered the Cardinals, the Falcons go to Washington as 3-point favorites, and I think they came too close last weekend and will light it up this weekend....although the Redskins are willy.

Which leaves Houston. The Texans will attend Monday Night Football drama at the Meadowlands with the Jets as 9-point road favorites. That spread is a little high, most likely because of the big goose egg the Jets put up last week when SanFran visited and left 34-0 victors. Rex will probably try and use that to motivate his team – but think about it....what team? Rex has put Sanchez in the patsy position. Sanches has noone to throw to and minimal protection. The Texans have the best defense in the league and are hungry for a Superbowl Ring already.....and they're coming for those men in green with fire in their bellies..... RAAAAAAGHHHH.. Should be fun to watch the slaughter that is sure to happen.

I want to mention New Orleans and their awful track record thus far. They keep coming close but no cigar. Last week they went to Lambeau to take on my boys and lost by 1-point. SMACK. 28-27. Ouch. Tightly fought game, but you know #12 is Superman. This week, Green Bay goes to Indy as 7-point road favorites and I don't think they have anything to fear as long as they don't get cocky and sloppy.

New Orleans will host SanDiego as gasp, 3.5-point home favorites. Well, the Saints can score, evidently. San Diego usually bites on the East Coast and whine-bag Phillip Rivers had a good game last week with a 37-20 win in Kansas City....which is a difficult stadium to win in, but is also clear across the country....happy traveling. New Orleans should get their first win here.

Philly beat the Giants in a low scoring 19-17, see-saw game Sunday night. Next up the Eagles go to Steeler Country as 3.5-point road dogs. This should be a good game – I'm wary of that .5-point hook....although...the Eagles have won their games by one or two points thus far this year, where as when the Steelers win it's usually by more than 3-points. Should be another good one.

The Giants host the Browns as 8..5-point home favorites. Cleveland may want to be leery. The Giants have been inconsistent to say the least and the have yet to get into their usual groove....but it's coming....and being home the Giants need a win to pacify their NY fans who are brutally critical of their team.

Lastly, Monday night Chicago went to Dallas and crunched the Boys 34-18. Oh Cowboys, it just wasn't your week..and your QB is a choke artist...especially when it counts the most, come on; y'all know that!

Chicago will travel to Jacksonville as 6-point road favorites. Suddenly, the Bears are Jellin'; I hope Jay Cutler keeps it up, he tends to fizzle toward the end of the season, so love him now while he's good.

This week, #5 is the first Bye Week – so, the teams on a break are Detroit, Oakland, TB, and Dallas (maybe it will shake the win/lose pattern the Boys have).

May you enjoy your Sunday and day off on Monday - - Whoot Whoot..... stay up late and watch Sunday night's game, it should be great to watch Drew's Drama as he proves himself to the team that rejected him.....and shoves his replacement's face in the turf. Boooof.

Picks: Arizona-1.5; Carolina -3; NO-3.5 (wow I NEVER take so many favorites!) - okay, my dog will be ...KC+6 and those swear word Jaguars +3....xoxox enjoy