Lazy Post Christmas Days with the Girls.....

So, I was wrapped up last week and never wrote an article, and all of a sudden it's Thursday late afternoon and I am about to go watch a movie with my girls.  It is the last week to make picks and I went to put my picks in and decided to go solely on what the "Trends" say - - I'm not going to break each team down, since I'm really looking forward to that kid's movie.....but I am going to give you the picks I made based solely on each "Trend" -- under covers.com -nfl -scores -under each game is a link to "trends" and I already did the legwork-- ATS --

Chicago/Detroit +2.5 (Detroit)
Jets/Buffalo -5.5 (Jets)
Tampa/Atlanta-7.5 (Tampa)
Carolina/New Orleans -5.5 (Carolina)
Houston/Indy +6.5 (Houston) (but I like INDY)
Jax/Tenn-3.5 (Jax)
Cleve/Pitts -5.5 (Cleve)
Balt/Cincy-2.5 (Cincy)
Philly/Giants -7.5 (Philly)
Arizona/SanFran -16.5 (SanFran) (ooof, it kills me to lay that many points)
KC/Denver -15.5 (KC)
GB/Minny +3.5 (GB)

Miami/NE-10.5 (Miami) (I know!  Read the TRENDS)
Oak/SanDiego -4.5 (Oak)
St. Louis/Seattle -10.5 (Seattle)
Dallas/Washington -3.5 (Dallas)
Points Dallas/Wash - 42........

see you in the Playoffs.......<3 Promises <3

Patriots Murder Texans in 42-14 Bout..........and I was there.

Last Saturday afternoon, right before my little girl's birthday party, I got a call from my friend Dave. “Get a babysitter for Monday Night, cuz we are going to Foxboro baby!” Giddy UP. Man-Oh-Man - - what seats, what weather, what an awesome steak dinner at Longhorns right before.....and then the cherry atop of the perfect evening - - a Patriot blowout. Awesomeness cubed. 

 I admit, I went in skeptical at best.....I thought Houston's Defense was better than ours, I also thought that with the injuries on offense, Tom would struggle a bit. Boy-oh-Boy was I wrong. The Texans looked like a bunch of buffoons out there.....Matt Schaub is pigeon-toed and their defense was like a sieve. OUR defense however – Holy Cows! In the first quarter, when Devin McCourty intercepted Schaub, it was the beginning of the end for the Texans...it was like a swan dance, Devin fluidly moved in front of the receiver and with perfect precision, snatched the ball and ran so smoothly it took a minute for everyone in the stands to understand what happened - - but when the replay was happening on the big screens - it was a crush of excitement and high fives all around. Then it just got better and better.....42-14 ...that second touchdown for the Texans was fluff – backup QB Yates was in for Houston and with 7+ minutes left in the fourth, he steadily marched his team down the field to get the TD right before the 2-minute warning. Fluff. I'm not sure how it came across on TV, but the Pats D was ON. They shut down Foster, blanketed Johnson and smothered Schaub. The Offense was also AFIRE and Brady threw accurate bullets...the 63-yard pass and over the shoulder catch to Donte Stallworth was so pretty it deserved a mirror. The entire game was a wonderful collective effort on both sides of the ball and reminiscent of the SB Pats we know and love. Right in time for Christmas.

Next up, San Fran comes knocking in another Prime Time-er, this one on Sunday night with the Patriots favored by 5-points. And guess what folks? That's right, I will be there again....this time I've known for awhile, and a huge tailgating party is part of the itinerary. San Fran is coming off a 27-13 home win over Miami last week, and really have no idea what they are in for.....well, maybe they have a slight clue - Randy Moss comes back to Bean Town as a 49er. Who will be the QB this week? It's very hush hush. Alex Smith technically could have played last week against Miami, but Coach Harbaugh went with Colin Kaepernick instead....and it looks like he might again this week in Foxboro. But, that Harbaugh is tricky – almost as tricky as our Bill......and it's possible he is playing the old bait and switch....or, he is convinced Colin is his best chance at a W.....who knows? Kaepernick did run for a 50-yard touchdown last week and his mobility and success thus far have obviously gotten the attention of his head coach. What we do know is that if the same Pats from Monday Night FB show up for Sunday Night FB, uh oh Kaepernick.

So, week 15 of the NFL always brings a lot of speculation and a million different scenarios for the playoff pictures, including but not limited to, potential Wild Card Spots - - First-round Bye's and Home-Field Advantages. I will attempt to muddle through some without adding too much confusion.....yeah right...GL, see you at the end.

PLAYOFF PICTURE SCENARIOS: WEEK 15

AFC

In the AFC...

HOUSTON TEXANS

Houston can clinch the AFC South division with:

1) HOU win

Houston can clinch a first-round bye with
1) HOU win + NE loss or tie + DEN loss

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore can clinch the AFC North division with:

1) BAL win OR

2) BAL tie + PIT loss or tie + CIN loss or tie OR

3) PIT loss + CIN loss

Baltimore can clinch a playoff berth with:

1) BAL tie OR

2) CIN loss or tie OR

3) PIT loss or tie

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Indianapolis can clinch a playoff berth with:

1) IND win OR

2) IND tie + CIN loss or tie OR

3) IND tie + PIT loss or tie OR

4) IND tie + BAL win OR

5) NYJ loss or tie + CIN loss OR
6) NYJ loss or tie + BAL win + CIN tie + PIT tie

NFC

In the NFC...

Over in the NFC, it's just as interesting, but most of it coming from "TIE +"...

ATLANTA FALCONS

Atlanta can clinch a first-round bye with:

1) ATL win + GB loss or tie OR

2) ATL win + SF loss OR

3) ATL tie + GB loss

Atlanta can clinch home-field advantage with:

1) ATL win + GB loss or tie + SF loss

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

San Francisco can clinch the NFC West division with:

1) SF win + SEA loss

San Francisco can clinch a playoff berth with:

1) SF win OR

2) SF tie + DAL loss or tie + WAS loss or tie + MIN loss or tie OR

3) SF tie + DAL loss or tie + WAS loss or tie + GB loss OR

4) SF tie + DAL loss or tie + WAS loss or tie + CHI loss OR

5) SF tie + DAL loss or tie + MIN loss or tie + CHI loss OR

6) SF tie + NYG los + CHI loss + MIN loss OR

7) MIN loss + DAL loss + WAS loss + SEA loss or tie

GREEN BAY

Green Bay can clinch the NFC North division with:

1) GB win

Green Bay can clinch a playoff berth with:

1) GB tie + DAL loss + WAS loss + STL-MIN tie OR

2) GB tie + DAL loss + WAS loss + MIN loss + SF win or tie OR
3) GB tie + DAL loss + WAS loss + MIN loss + SEA does not tie

Will Farrell is also a Packer Fan.......

So, if you can understand all that and keep it straight and know who is where when and at what time then you're a better FB guru than me. I am going to wait until the end of next week to read up on where everyone stands and then report it...and technically the list should be shorter, but it never ends up that way. The trends state that road dogs historically do well this week and since history has taught me that Week 15 is nuts and never goes the way you think....unlike all the other weeks when it's SO easy to pick....every little trend helps. Sometimes, teams that need the “must win” and teams that are “out” have a Freaky Friday experience and at the end of the weekend it's like “???”. Sometimes, the “spoiler” teams do just that. I guess what I'm saying is ….never count anyone out....both the desperate and the indifferent are equally dangerous.

My nephew Ajay told me last night that he's been reading me lately. Whatup Neph? Good Job....keep reading, you never know when I'm going to write something to you and you need to be in the know.

May everyone avoid the malls like the plague and have a nice weekend! Watch for me on the screen – I'll be the one in blue with a hat on.

Famous Fans Of Eachother....

Picks: Buffalo +5.5; Detroit -6; Cleveland +1; Patriots -5; TB +3.5; (ridiculously enough I like Philly +3.5 tonight)

A BIG AFC VOGUE ROAR......Vogue, Vogue, Vogue

Wow what a whacky week of football...must be something about the number 13.

The Patriots did a nice job securing AFC East Crown, in their 23-16 win in Miami last week....extra special to be four games ahead of the rest of the division. Nicely done, and kudos. Miami covering the spread in the final seconds was just a cherry. Next week, while the dolphins will fly to San Fran as 10-point road dogs, the Pats will host the Texans as 3.5-point home favorites.

I am a broken record. What's with the hook? This game is huge to both teams. For the Pats a “W” here means a first-round Bye Week, and possibly Home-Field advantage throughout the playoffs, as well as moving within one game of the Texans. For the Texans, a “W” would mean securing No. 1 seed and completing the circle of victories over all of the other divisional leaders in the conference. Whew. Stakes are soaring. Monday Night.....Bright Lights, Movie Stars. Some stats declare that the Patriots are 10-1 in their last 11 Monday night contests, with the wins coming by an average of more than 20 points. Then I ask you, why does this spread seem so skewered to me? Man, it's every single week. Let's use our heads for a minute;

The Texans are no joke this year, their offense is stellar – as is the Patriots, of course, but which Defense will be more effective against the opposite force? Last time these two teams met up in Foxboro, Welker tore his left ACL and MCL in a 34-27 Patriot loss. Oof. This week, the Pats will be short on the offensive side with TE, Gronkowski out recovering from forearm surgery until late December, and Julien Edelman last week lost for the season with a broken foot. The Pats re-signed Donte' Stallworth on Tuesday to help fill the void. Just a for an instance, if the Pats did happen to lose, in reality, they will probably (hopefully) be matched up with the Texans again for the AFC Champ game....and you know the stats on when the Pats play a team for the second time in one season...just think about it. It wouldn't be the worst thing to happen........I'm just saying. Alas, I don't know about that hook, the trends tell me diddly...some favor the Pats and some favor the Texans...it should be a great, edge of your seat Monday Night Football Game whose results will factor into that over-sized machine of NFL stats and spit out a number of different perks for the winner.

Last week, San Fran went to St. Louis as 9-point favorites to re-enact the tie game they shared in week 11....except, this time St. Louis won in overtime 16-13. The 49ers can actually kick the kicker for the loss.....49ers K, David Akers, missed a field goal in OT and gave the Rams the ball on their own 41-yard line.....couple of moves later and Goodnight San Francisco.

Next up for St. Louis is a trip to Buffalo as 3-point road dogs. I think the Bills cover, no stats, just gut.

San Fran will host Miami as 10-point home favorites and although I think the 49ers will win, but I think the spread is too high. All of Miami's losses this season, despite where, have been closer than 10-points and the Dolphins seem to travel well. Although, this will be a pit-stop at home for the 49ers as their next two games are on the road, first here, to Foxboro and then to Seattle – both places difficult to play on the road and the back and forth across the country has got to amount to something. Huh. Well, this game is a flip for me....10-points is a lot.

Speaking of Seattle....wow. It's difficult not to be impressed by rookie QB Russell Wilson and his level head under pressure against the Bears in last week's 23-17 overtime win. The Bears also lost Brian Urlacher for three weeks with a hamstring strain. Owie. Next up for the Bears is a trip to Minny as 2.5-point road favorites. Well, that's kind of a weak spread, considering that this is a repeat road trip for Chicago who conquered the Vikings 28-12 two weeks ago. There is the question of familiarity, but I truly think that we, Patriot Nation, just assume other teams utilize the outrageous advantages of deja vu as well as our own.....and that's just not true. Chicago also already knows how to beat Minny in the dome. The Seahawks will host Arizona as 10-point home favorites in this week's Battle of the Birds. Eek. A lot of chalk. But....it's not unusual for Seattle to win by more than ten at home and the Cardinals have been imploding since their “hot” start. I say the ocean birds eat the pretty red ones.

Last week, the Jets back-doored the Cardinals...in a 7-6 win. The boys in Green finally scored a touchdown in the beginning of the fourth and held the Cardinals to two field goals. Boring. Next.

The Jets go to Jacksonville as 2.5-point road favorites. Oh Brother. Talk about a party of inconsistency. Flip it.

My final game from last week to discuss is that Ind-Detroit nail biter. QB Andrew Luck, another rookie with a rock solid confidence and laser arm, led his team to a victory when all odds were against them. The Colts were losing 33-21 with 2:39 left in the game when Luck tossed a 42-yard touchdown to LaVon Brazill to bring them within 5-points. Then, this young magician orchestrated an 11-play, 75-yard drive with a little over a minute left......on fourth down with four seconds left on the clock, Luck connected with Avery for the winning score. Talk about on the edge of your seat! Very Peyton-like for such a young lad.

Next up, Indy hosts Tennesee as 5-point home favorites and Detroit goes to GB as 7-point road dogs. I think Indy covers the spread and Detroit does too, but loses to my beloved Pack.

Finally, tonight, Denver goes to Oakland as 10.5-point road favorites. Denver is fighting for all kinds of props; like first-round Bye. Oakland has been on a horrific losing streak, however, with the exception of their 38-07 loss to NO in week 11; the Raiders have not lost by more than 7-points at home all season. I think the Raiders cover the spread.

Ok folks, I'm outie. Hope you all have a great weekend!

Also, I'd like to shout out a very special Happy Birthday to my gorgeous, brilliant and totally wonderful Eleanor who will be 5-years old tomorrow. Gosh the time flies. I finally get why my dad wanted to “put bricks” on my head. :)

Picks without bricks: Bills -3; Miami +10; Seahawks -10; Raiders +10.5; Indy -5 and Detroit +7.