The Week of the DIVISIONAL BATTLES......

I hope everyone had a wonderful, loving, full of good food Thanksgiving Holiday and are all getting back into the rhythm of things.

Week 13 brings us numerous Divisional Match-Ups-- seven to be exact. Most of the time, when divisional teams play each other – even the most hideous somehow step up. It's more competitive, more intense, more personal, and most importantly.....more Familiar. Let's break em' down.

The first big D Fight happens tonight (Thursday) when Atlanta hosts New Orleans as 3.5-point home favorites. Surprisingly, the public is all over New Orleans. Let's think about this a minute people. Atlanta has been on FIRE thus far this season – Matty Ice nothing, more like Matty Hotcha....The Falcon's only loss so far this season was in New Orleans 27-31 and it came down to the final two minutes with Atlanta on NO's 2-yard line, going for it on fourth down and getting stuffed. New Orleans got lucky. Last week, the Falcons barely squeaked out a win at TB 24-23; so, my guess is they don't fiddle around....they come home, they go to work and they take the Saints apart.....limb by limb.

Our own boys will be in Miami as 9-point road favorites. Man, I feel like a broken record. I know that the Pats came back like a big ball of fire, first while hosting Indy in week 11 and winning 59-24, and then last week in New York, they trampled the poor men in green 49-19....and that's great. But, something is nibbling at me.....9-points? Usually, once I get comfortable with the high scoring Patriots, they go back to fight it out games. I'm going against the tide here and taking the points. I think the Pats win, maybe by a touchdown but not more. Let's talk about Miami – although their record is 5-6, four of those six losses were by three points. I'm taking the points...don't be haters.

Minny at Green Bay (-9.5). Ooof, that's a lot of chalk. These teams have serious history and do not like each other very much. Plus, my beloved Packers have taken a hit in the Defense department.....(S) Woodson and (LB) Matthews; are only two of numerous on the injured list, but in my opinion, they are the most crucial players out with injuries. The pressure is on the kid, because a loss here can spiral GB's season right down the crapper. Minny has been playing a spotty season at best. They have some valiant wins, but a lot of sloppy losses too. The Vikings also have their own defensive trouble with their maniac Jared Allen out with a shoulder injury. I'm taking the points on this one. I have faith in the kid....plus the trends read pretty and look to fall my way.

Minnesota	Under is 6-0 in Vikings last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Over is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games in December.
Green Bay	Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games following a ATS loss. Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
Head to Head	Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Green Bay. Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings. Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Green Bay.

Next up to discuss is San Fran traveling to St. Louie as 7-point road favorites. Really? Are people looking at the same information as me? Am I crazy? The last game these two played, was in San Francisco and ended 24-24; the first tie since 2008. What? Now, two weeks later, in their own home, the Rams warrant a 7-point lead? Well, I'm picking St. Louie. They are 3-3 at home so I guess I have a 50/50 shot at getting this right. Follow if you dare.

Houston (-6) at Tennessee is next on the chopping block. I would think Houston would deserve more points as a road favorite due to their record, but I must have missed something. Hmmm. 79% of the public are picking Houston; as would be my first instinct too - - after doing a little digging.....I found absolutely nothing. Houston has had one loss this season, to GB in mid-October, and haven't given any indication they plan on slowing down. Tennessee has been sporadic at best and downright rotten at times.....this seems too easy.....it feels like a trap but I don't know how. I'm going to play it safe and go with the public on this one...they DO win sometimes.

Finally, we have the divisional square of Philly at Dallas (-10.5) and Giants at Washington (+1). Let's take Philly-Dallas first. 10.5-points? What the heck happened to Philly? Not that I'm too surprised, anyone who is cruel and vicious to dogs ultimately will fail in the end.....but 10.5-points to Dallas? What have they done that's so spectacular? Granted, since their Bye week, Philly has yet to win a game, or even lose a close one...and on 11/11, Dallas did beat them up pretty good 38-23 – but, the Boys themselves were coming off a two game losing streak. Fom what I can gather from the screen, Philly started to implode before Vick went out with a concussion last time these two teams met in week 10....three weeks ago, when Philly was only on a five game losing streak. Add two more. Ouch. Philly is a mess. What choice do I have but to go with the Boys? Why do I feel that somehow, from somewhere, the Eagles will pull something off? All they have to do is rock Tony Romo a little and he gets all flustered and chokes. Guffaw. Everyone knows that. I'm torn and twisted about this one and over-thinking it. Those Cowboys manage to screw up a free lunch, and the Eagles are a bunch of stooges with a concussed Psycho at the realm. Flip it Folks.

Finally, let's tackle the Giants and the Redskins. Close spread. Washington getting one point at home. Hmmmm. Interesting. Let's break it down. Washington was on a three game losing streak, until they had their Bye, regrouped, then came out and won two consecutive....Philly (31-6) and Dallas (38-31) – all in D family.....how cozy. The Skins have already lost to the Giants in week 7 - - in a close 27-23, down to the wire fight. Eli got the ball with a little more than a minute on the clock and ended up tossing a 77-yard touchdown to Victor Cruz to become the hero of the day. That must have stung sharp for the Skins and if they lose this weekend, they will have been division-ally swept by the Giants, hence the 1-point.....tricky Vegas.....they don't have a clue. I'm going with Washington +1 at home.....roll the dice baby.

Okay folks, that's all I have for you. I wish you all a warm, cozy weekend, with lots of pigskin and maybe a big Sunday dinner....time for lunch ha ha!

Picks: Atlanta -3.5; St. Louie +7; Wash +1; GB-9.5 (oof); Houston -6 …...I'm usually a dog girl – so 3 favorites makes me leery.....but that's what I got.      

Another Close W by the Pats...... Divisional No Doubt.....

Maybe the Patriots think it's more exciting to keep the game close and keep Patriot Nation at the edge of their seats and screaming at the TV, but I think a tiny problem with “closing the deal” is more apt to be the culprit....sometimes it swings the Pats way and sometimes it doesn't....last week, the pendulum swung our way in the 37-31 W against the Bills. Close! Close! Close! I have a book with that title that I think I'll pop in the overnight to Bill....because every little bit helps.

Thursday Night, Buffalo will host Miami as 1-point home favorites. Last weekend, as we were just discussing, Buffalo came close to finally beating NE in Foxboro, but thankfully, with 23 seconds left, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an interception in the end zone thwarting their victory plan.(PHEW) On the other side, Miami got flounced by Tennessee 37-3......ooof, that had to hurt like a punch in the gut. Naturally, based on last weeks performances, most of the talking heads and the public are behind Buffalo all the way - - but..... I think Miami bounces back, and beats Buffalo because, besides the trends pointing that way, history repeats itself and Miami seems to have the Bill's number....ring ring.

TRENDS:
* Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East.
* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. AFC East.

This week, the Patriots host Indianapolis as 9.5-point home favorites. Man. 63% of the public money is on Indy....which would usually automatically make my mind up for me to go the other way.....however, 10-points? These aren't the same Colts of yesteryear with Peyton behind the ball, however, they currently have the same 6-3 record as our boys.....granted, some of the teams they beat are floppy....but they also have a QB named Luck. Darn it. I am hoping the Patriots get there crap together and put up an astronomical amount of points and put the game away early.....won't that be nice? If you build it they will come. If you believe, it will happen.

Coming up Sunday, Baltimore travels to the limping and broken Pittsburgh as 3.5-point road favorites. Well, I can see why. Big Ben is side-lined with a shoulder injury as well as a very “rare” rib injury...one wrong move and his rib can pierce his aorta and goodnight Ben....forever. So, Bryan Leftwich will step in as QB and he has a bullet arm, but it takes him forever to wind up and throw, also, he can't move around well. In order for the Steelers to be competitive in this very important divisional match-up, their Offensive Line will have to be stellar....those Raven defensive guys are wily and powerful. The public is 75% on Baltimore, and only a fool would choose the Steelers in this situation, all vulnerable with their underbelly exposed......but, I think the team rallies and either beats the Ravens or lose by 3-points. Call me a fool.

Week 11 is shaping up to be the time of the big spreads. Houston hosts Jacksonville as 15-point home favorites. Wow. The sad part is that I will most likely lay the points.....the Jaguars have fooled me one too many times.....and only 57% of the public is on Houston which helps me jump off that point cliff.

Denver hosts San Diego as 8.5-point home favorites with the public split 50/50. Dallas hosts Cleveland as 9.5-point home favorites and another 51/49 public split......what, I ask you, has Dallas done to warrant a 10-point lead on Anybody? Atlanta hosts Arizona as 9.5-point home favorites and the public is 61% on the Falcons – who have proven to be a team to be reckoned with, and Arizona seems to have played their best ball at the beginning of the season, winning their first four only to have jumped on the losing train and gone down hill at neck-breaking speed.

Finally, Monday night will bring a game of epic proportions....pending which QBs play. San Fran hosts Chicago and there is yet to be a spread.

On the Bear side, Cutler is out due to a concussion and won't play, in his place will be either Jason Campbell or Josh McCown....most likely Campbell. Yikes. That stinks. The Bears have been on a tear, and this glitch may slow them down considerably.

On the 49er side, QB Alex Smith, was also diagnosed with a concussion, however has since passed all tests and has been cleared to play Monday night...but, he does also have a finger injury so, if by chance he comes out, rookie QB, Colin Kaepernick will take over.

Well folks, the rest of the day is calling to me and I must answer. I hope you all have toasty warm toes while you watch football, enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for next week's Thanksgiving issue.

Picks: Carolina+1; Detroit +3.5; Miami +1; Pittsburgh +3.5

Jolly Good Show in London.......Pip Pip.

Bloody "L", what a way to shake things up Patriots. Holy Touchdowns.

Following the only points the Rams scored last Sunday, Tom Brady got the ball and said “Heck No”, and then proceeded to lead the offense to four straight TD's in the first half and immediately threw another to start the 3^rd. Very Impressive 45-3 W.

Last week, the Patriot Offense broke a record with 350+ yards of Offense in 17 consecutive games. Ironically, the record was previously held by Kurt Warner and the Rams aka “The Greatest Show on Turf” and set during the 1999-2000 season. Well, at least the Rams had that, very shortly afterward, NE came along - Superbowl contenders ....the underdogs, without a shot - only to Stun the World with a powerful Super Bowl W ....and very soon following, the Rams were no more.   

By the way, did anyone catch the camera blooper when the referee went to explain a flag and stood with his back to the cameras?  He realized his mistake, turned around and explained the flag - and the talking heads said that everything was backward in London....the cameras? Huh? Why? What's the point?....... It just seems so, I don't know.... backwards.

This week, the Patriots are on a much deserved Bye Week along with the Jets, Rams and San Fran. Hopefully, some superstitions prompted the Pats to pack a little English soil or something to take home so that during their next game, they can channel the chaps they were in the Queen's country. 

Tonight, KC goes to San Diego as 9-point road dogs. Man. Both teams have been on brutal losing streaks. Last week, San Diego lost in Cleveland 6-7, and the Chiefs lost at home to Oakland 26-16. Ouchie...big fat weeping Ouch. Now, they face each other and hopefully have taken a big scoop out of the motivational jar...and passed it around....a competitive game is always more entertaining.  So far, everything I've read points toward San Diego winning this game.  They already beat the Chiefs 37-20 in week 4. But, for some reason, I'm liking KC and the points. Forcing turn-overs is a Chief specialty and in my vision, Matt Cassel uses all the negative comments about him and channels them into TD's with a little help from his D---he also works on holding onto the ball and reduces the amount of his turn-overs by pure conscientiousness, therefore re-building his confidence.....anything to stomp Phillip Rivers - -and Cassel is all I have to work with this week.

Last weekend, Hurricane Sandy came to visit and did a number on the East Coast, more specifically, New York City. Our hearts and prayers go out to all of the people, up and down the coast, struggling with the remnants the storm left behind, and to all the people who have suffered losses, or have been relocated from their homes.

This Sunday, the Giants are scheduled to host Pittsburgh as 3.5-point home favorites in what should be a good old fashioned smash mouth game. I haven't heard any news about any damage to the stadium, so I'll go on the assumption that there is none.  Both QB's, Ben and Eli, came out of the 04' draft and have had somewhat parallel careers, promising to give us a good competitive game with absolutely no clue which way this one will fall.  I do know that unless they face off in the big game, they won't play against each other again for another four years (as a Steeler and a Giant). 

Minny goes to Seahawks as 5-point underdogs and WOW! does that line surprise me. Suddenly, Seattle is getting respect.....and with a pretty good team too.....now the question is:  How do they handle it?  Usually, once the underdog gets flipped to the expected winner, everything changes emotionally for the team....whether they recognize it or not, it happens. Emotion. A very important element in a great football game.

Five home dogs out of fourteen games. That's a lot. I'm going to analyze this angle for the remainder of today's football article.

Home Dogs. Imagine. Not only the coaches and the fans, but VEGAS itself.... labeling your team as weak, or unable to fight the stronger team despite being on your own turf. EMOTION people....I'm telling you, it's a powerful thing...and I have witnessed it assist mediocre teams with big wins over more superior teams.....otherwise known as UPSETS.

Not all of the home dogs are going to win outright – but I'm going to guess at least two, if not three of them do...and it's going to be the most unexpected teams that will pull the upset. Let's try and put logic, trends, weather, emotion, talent and injuries all together on these games and determine who will do what.......

First, we have Chicago traveling to Tennessee as 3.5-point road favorites. So far, the trends tell me zip:

Chicago	Bears are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. Over is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games in November.
Tennessee	Under is 6-0 in Titans last 6 games in November. Under is 4-0-1 in Titans last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Under is 4-0-1 in Titans last 5 games as a home favorite.
Head to Head	No recent Head to Head trends

There is a chance of drizzle, and the temp will be approx. 57 degrees, which is nice football weather – with or without a little rain. Tennessee has a slew of recently injured defensive players, plus a banged up QB in Locker, leaving them to continue with Matt Hasselback....who can be touch and go. The same could be said about Jay Cutler....just not lately....the Bears are riding a 5 game winning streak – and winning big – their only loss thus far to GB in week 2..plus they only have a few players on the injured list, and have been playing well both on the road and at home.  I don't think the Titans can overpower this hot team.....the Bears have been rolling, and although it will come to a halt eventually, my guess is:  not this weekend.  69% of public money on a team is sometimes a tip-off to an upset, but I have to ride the hot team on this one.

Next up, is Detroit at Jax as 4-point road favorites. It's expected to be sunny and hot in FLA on Sunday, and trends indicate that the favored team is 4-0 ATS....but also clearly states that the Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Conflicting. There is nothing specifically about Jacksonville to compare to.

Detroit	Over is 5-0 in Lions last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Over is 4-0 in Lions last 4 games in Week 9. Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Jacksonville	Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games as a home favorite. Over is 3-0-1 in Jaguars last 4 games in Week 9. Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Head to Head	No recent Head to Head trends

Detroit suffered a handful of injuries as well, but none as damaging as WR Nate Burleson, who broke his leg. What a bummer.  On the other side of the field,  Jacksonville's RB Maurice Jones-Drew is out with a foot injury... a huge loss to the Jaguars who are 0-3 at home thus far this season.  I want to take Detroit in this game – but, Detroit is 0-3 against the Jaguars.....and despite the Jaguar's atrocious play this season coupled with their limping line-up, they did play tough in GB last weekend. All the ingredients of a possible upset are evident....including the 73% public money. Here I go, jumping off a cliff.

Home dog number three is Indy hosting Miami as 1-point road favorites. In this match-up, both teams are 4-3 and 1-point is not committing to either team, maybe a very slight lean toward Miami....a missed extra point. Miami has been playing good ball for the past few weeks; out of their past six games, they won four of them, losing the other two in overtime. And Indy shocked everyone with their wins in weeks 2 and 4 over Minny and GB, respectively. QB Andrew Luck seems to be solid and settling into his new role as head horse....however, every single trend points to Miami winning this game......and being the trend girl that I am, I've gotta go with my trends....read em' and weep:

Miami	Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Indianapolis	Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November. Under is 5-0 in Colts last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Under is 4-0 in Colts last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Head to Head	Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Indianapolis. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Miami it is. (54% of public money – much better percentage).

Baltimore will go to their divisional rival's house in Cleveland as 3.5-point road favorites. I'm usually pretty Dennis Leary of divisional road favorites as the teams tend to know each other quite well. The trends indicate a slight Brown advantage:

Baltimore	Over is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC. Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Cleveland	Under is 5-0-1 in Browns last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Over is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games in Week 9. Browns are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC North.
Head to Head	Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cleveland. Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Last weekend, the Texans derailed Baltimore's four game winning streak with a massive 43-13 lashing in Houston and Cleveland held onto a 1-point lead in their 7-6 home victory to San Diego.  One team coming off a win and the other off a loss...usually slight motivational lean toward the team coming off the loss.

There is a 35% chance of rain or snow - - which both teams are accustomed to. Historically, both in Cleveland and in Baltimore; the Ravens have won 9 of their 10 games since 2007. BUT, the Browns are getting a couple of Defensive players back and the Ravens have lost a couple of key Defensive players. The Browns are slowly improving, their QB is green, but learning, and their D is compensating. I am leaning toward the home team in this one....as crazy and unorthodox as that may seem....the point that pushed me completely onto the Brown side is the 73% of public money on Baltimore - - too many people thinking it's in the bag.

Our final team to discuss will be Denver at Cincy as 3.5-point road favorites. The weather shouldn't be a factor, in fact, it's forecast as clear and sunny. I'm wondering if Cincy will be more motivated coming off a Bye week and if Denver will be slightly deflated with a short week.  Last weekend, the Broncos beat NO 34-14 in Sunday Night's Prime Time.  During their past six games, the Bengals had a three week winning streak immediately followed by a three game losing streak, with a Bye last weekend to re-group. The trends do nothing but confuse the issue.....prepare to be conflicted:

Denver	Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cincinnati	Bengals are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Over is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 5-0 in Bengals last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Head to Head	Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

With 69% of public money on Denver, I'm still conflicted....sometimes the public wins, otherwise people would stop betting. I like Denver to win, but something is nibbling at me saying “don't discount those Bengals”.... I am undecided on this one. Sorry. Flip a coin.

Well, that's it folks. Enjoy your pigskin this weekend, or your Bye week; whichever floats your boat....and may all your fantasy teams prevail!

Picks: Jax +4; Chicago -3.5; Minny +5; Miami -3.5; Cleveland +3.5;