Bloody "L", what a way to shake
things up Patriots. Holy Touchdowns.
Following the only points
the Rams scored last Sunday, Tom Brady got the ball and said “Heck
No”, and then proceeded to lead the offense to four straight TD's
in the first half and immediately threw another to start the 3rd. Very Impressive 45-3 W.
Last week, the Patriot Offense broke
a record with 350+ yards of Offense in 17 consecutive games.
Ironically, the record was previously held by Kurt Warner and the Rams aka “The Greatest Show on
Turf” and set during the 1999-2000 season. Well, at least the Rams had that, very shortly afterward, NE came
along - Superbowl contenders ....the underdogs, without a shot - only to Stun the World with a
powerful Super Bowl W ....and very soon following, the Rams were no
more.
By the way, did anyone catch the camera blooper when the referee went to explain a flag and stood with his back to the cameras? He realized his mistake, turned around and explained the flag - and the talking heads said that everything was backward in London....the cameras? Huh? Why? What's the point?....... It just seems so, I don't know.... backwards.
By the way, did anyone catch the camera blooper when the referee went to explain a flag and stood with his back to the cameras? He realized his mistake, turned around and explained the flag - and the talking heads said that everything was backward in London....the cameras? Huh? Why? What's the point?....... It just seems so, I don't know.... backwards.
This week, the Patriots
are on a much deserved Bye Week along with the Jets, Rams and San
Fran. Hopefully, some superstitions prompted the Pats to pack a little English soil or something to take home so that during their next game, they can channel the chaps they were in the Queen's country.
Tonight, KC goes to San
Diego as 9-point road dogs. Man. Both teams have been on brutal
losing streaks. Last week, San Diego lost in Cleveland 6-7, and the
Chiefs lost at home to Oakland 26-16. Ouchie...big fat weeping Ouch.
Now, they face each other and hopefully have taken a big scoop out of the motivational jar...and passed it around....a competitive game is always more entertaining. So far, everything I've read
points toward San Diego winning this game. They already beat the
Chiefs 37-20 in week 4. But, for some reason, I'm liking KC
and the points. Forcing turn-overs is a Chief specialty and in my
vision, Matt Cassel uses all the negative comments about him and
channels them into TD's with a little help from his D---he also works
on holding onto the ball and reduces the amount of his turn-overs by pure conscientiousness,
therefore re-building his confidence.....anything to stomp Phillip Rivers - -and Cassel is all I have to work with this week.
Last weekend, Hurricane Sandy came to visit and did a number on the East Coast, more specifically, New York City. Our hearts and prayers go out to all of the people, up and down the coast, struggling with the remnants the storm left behind, and to all the people who have suffered losses, or have been relocated from their homes.
This Sunday, the Giants are scheduled to host Pittsburgh as 3.5-point home favorites in what should be a good old fashioned smash mouth game. I haven't heard any news about any damage to the stadium, so I'll go on the assumption that there is none. Both QB's, Ben and Eli, came out of the 04' draft and have had somewhat parallel careers, promising to give us a good competitive game with absolutely no clue which way this one will fall. I do know that unless they face off in the big game, they won't play against each other again for another four years (as a Steeler and a Giant).
Minny goes to Seahawks as
5-point underdogs and WOW! does that line surprise me. Suddenly,
Seattle is getting respect.....and with a pretty good team too.....now the question is: How do they handle it? Usually, once the
underdog gets flipped to the expected winner, everything changes
emotionally for the team....whether they recognize it or not, it
happens. Emotion. A very important element in a great football game.
Five home dogs out of
fourteen games. That's a lot. I'm going to analyze this angle for
the remainder of today's football article.
Home Dogs. Imagine. Not
only the coaches and the fans, but VEGAS itself.... labeling your
team as weak, or unable to fight the stronger team despite being on
your own turf. EMOTION people....I'm telling you, it's a powerful thing...and I have witnessed it assist mediocre teams with big wins over more superior teams.....otherwise known as UPSETS.
Not all of the home
dogs are going to win outright – but I'm going to guess at least
two, if not three of them do...and it's going to be the most unexpected teams
that will pull the upset. Let's try and put logic, trends, weather, emotion, talent and injuries all together on these games and
determine who will do what.......
First, we have Chicago
traveling to Tennessee as 3.5-point road favorites. So far, the
trends tell me zip:
Bears
are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of
0.5-3.0.
Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. Over is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games in November. |
|
Tennessee
|
Under
is 6-0 in Titans last 6 games in November.
Under is 4-0-1 in Titans last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Under is 4-0-1 in Titans last 5 games as a home favorite. |
Head
to Head
|
No
recent Head to Head trends
|
There is a chance of
drizzle, and the temp will be approx. 57 degrees, which is nice football weather – with or
without a little rain. Tennessee has a slew of recently injured
defensive players, plus a banged up QB in Locker, leaving them to continue
with Matt Hasselback....who can be touch and go. The same could be
said about Jay Cutler....just not lately....the Bears are riding a 5
game winning streak – and winning big – their only loss thus far to
GB in week 2..plus they only have a few players on the injured
list, and have been playing well both on the road and at home. I
don't think the Titans can overpower this hot team.....the Bears have
been rolling, and although it will come to a halt eventually, my
guess is: not this weekend. 69% of public money on a team
is sometimes a tip-off to an upset, but I have to ride the hot team on this one.
Next
up, is Detroit at Jax as 4-point road favorites. It's expected to be sunny
and hot in FLA on Sunday, and trends indicate that the favored team
is 4-0 ATS....but also clearly states that the Lions
are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Conflicting. There is nothing specifically about Jacksonville to compare to.
Detroit
|
Over
is 5-0 in Lions last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home
record.
Over is 4-0 in Lions last 4 games in Week 9. Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. |
Jacksonville
|
Under
is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games as a home favorite.
Over is 3-0-1 in Jaguars last 4 games in Week 9. Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. |
Head
to Head
|
No
recent Head to Head trends
|
Detroit suffered a handful of injuries as well, but none as damaging as WR Nate Burleson, who broke his leg. What a bummer. On the other side of the field, Jacksonville's RB Maurice Jones-Drew is out with a foot injury... a huge loss to the Jaguars who are 0-3 at home thus far this season. I want to take Detroit in this game – but, Detroit is 0-3 against the Jaguars.....and despite the Jaguar's atrocious play this season coupled with their limping line-up, they did play tough in GB last weekend. All the ingredients of a possible upset are evident....including the 73% public money. Here I go, jumping off a cliff.
Home
dog number three is Indy hosting Miami as 1-point road
favorites. In this match-up, both teams are 4-3 and 1-point is not committing to
either team, maybe a very slight lean toward Miami....a missed
extra point. Miami has been playing good ball for the past few
weeks; out of their past six games, they won four of them, losing the
other two in overtime. And Indy shocked everyone with their wins in weeks 2
and 4 over Minny and GB, respectively. QB Andrew Luck seems to
be solid and settling into his new role as head horse....however,
every single trend points to Miami winning this game......and being the trend girl that I am, I've gotta go
with my trends....read em' and weep:
Miami
|
Dolphins
are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. |
Indianapolis
|
Colts
are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Under is 5-0 in Colts last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Under is 4-0 in Colts last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. |
Head
to Head
|
Road
team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Indianapolis. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. |
Miami it is. (54% of public money – much better percentage).
Baltimore will go to
their divisional rival's house in Cleveland as 3.5-point road
favorites. I'm usually pretty Dennis Leary of divisional road
favorites as the teams tend to know each other quite well. The
trends indicate a slight Brown
advantage:
Baltimore
|
Over
is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC. Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. |
Cleveland
|
Under
is 5-0-1 in Browns last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points
in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games in Week 9. Browns are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC North. |
Head
to Head
|
Ravens
are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cleveland.
Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. |
Last weekend, the Texans derailed Baltimore's four game winning streak with a massive 43-13 lashing in Houston and Cleveland held onto a 1-point lead in their 7-6 home victory to San Diego. One team coming off a win and the other off a loss...usually slight motivational lean toward the team coming off the loss.
There is a 35% chance of rain or snow - - which both teams are accustomed to. Historically, both in Cleveland and in Baltimore; the Ravens have won 9 of their 10 games since 2007. BUT, the Browns are getting a couple of Defensive players back and the Ravens have lost a couple of key Defensive players. The Browns are slowly improving, their QB is green, but learning, and their D is compensating. I am leaning toward the home team in this one....as crazy and unorthodox as that may seem....the point that pushed me completely onto the Brown side is the 73% of public money on Baltimore - - too many people thinking it's in the bag.
Our final team to discuss
will be Denver at Cincy as 3.5-point road favorites. The weather
shouldn't be a factor, in fact, it's forecast as clear and sunny. I'm wondering if
Cincy will be more motivated coming off a Bye week and if Denver will
be slightly deflated with a short week. Last weekend, the Broncos beat NO 34-14
in Sunday Night's Prime Time. During their past six games, the Bengals had
a three week winning streak immediately followed by a three game
losing streak, with a Bye last weekend to re-group. The trends do
nothing but confuse the issue.....prepare to be conflicted:
Denver
|
Broncos
are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than
14 points.
Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. |
Cincinnati
|
Bengals
are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
Over is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 5-0 in Bengals last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0. |
Head
to Head
|
Underdog
is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. |
With 69% of public money on
Denver, I'm still conflicted....sometimes the public wins, otherwise
people would stop betting. I like Denver to win, but something is
nibbling at me saying “don't discount those Bengals”.... I am
undecided on this one. Sorry. Flip a coin.
Well, that's it folks. Enjoy your
pigskin this weekend, or your Bye week; whichever floats your
boat....and may all your fantasy teams prevail!
Picks: Jax +4; Chicago -3.5;
Minny +5; Miami -3.5; Cleveland +3.5;
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